Market-implied odds assign 97.9% probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the FOMC’s hawkish pivot amid persistent inflation and resilient growth. September 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, with core measures also elevated, while the October employment report showed 165,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%. Policymakers have held the federal funds target at 3.75–4.00% after a September hike, with futures pricing an 78–80% chance of another 25-basis-point increase at the December 8–9 meeting and further tightening into 2027. Strong labor demand and broad price pressures have shifted the market-implied rate path higher than earlier expectations. A sharp slowdown in incoming data or decisive disinflation could still reopen scope for easing.