Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that President Trump will not attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before leaving office in January 2029, driven by Powell's term expiring May 15—just two days away—and the Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor on May 13. Despite Trump's April threats to remove Powell if he lingered past his chair tenure (while staying on as a Fed governor until 2028), no formal firing effort materialized amid legal barriers requiring "cause" under the Federal Reserve Act and successful nomination process. DOJ probes into Powell ended earlier, reducing friction. Only an abrupt reversal, like a nomination snag or escalation over rate policy, could prompt a late try, though historical precedent favors de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$90,001 Vol.
$90,001 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$90,001 Vol.
$90,001 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that President Trump will not attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before leaving office in January 2029, driven by Powell's term expiring May 15—just two days away—and the Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor on May 13. Despite Trump's April threats to remove Powell if he lingered past his chair tenure (while staying on as a Fed governor until 2028), no formal firing effort materialized amid legal barriers requiring "cause" under the Federal Reserve Act and successful nomination process. DOJ probes into Powell ended earlier, reducing friction. Only an abrupt reversal, like a nomination snag or escalation over rate policy, could prompt a late try, though historical precedent favors de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volumen
$90,001Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that President Trump will not attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before leaving office in January 2029, driven by Powell's term expiring May 15—just two days away—and the Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor on May 13. Despite Trump's April threats to remove Powell if he lingered past his chair tenure (while staying on as a Fed governor until 2028), no formal firing effort materialized amid legal barriers requiring "cause" under the Federal Reserve Act and successful nomination process. DOJ probes into Powell ended earlier, reducing friction. Only an abrupt reversal, like a nomination snag or escalation over rate policy, could prompt a late try, though historical precedent favors de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$90,001Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that President Trump will not attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before leaving office in January 2029, driven by Powell's term expiring May 15—just two days away—and the Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor on May 13. Despite Trump's April threats to remove Powell if he lingered past his chair tenure (while staying on as a Fed governor until 2028), no formal firing effort materialized amid legal barriers requiring "cause" under the Federal Reserve Act and successful nomination process. DOJ probes into Powell ended earlier, reducing friction. Only an abrupt reversal, like a nomination snag or escalation over rate policy, could prompt a late try, though historical precedent favors de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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