**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt among FOMC participants have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the September 2026 meeting.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.5%–3.75% at both the June and July gatherings—the latter on a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 62.5%. Elevated core PCE readings and June SEP projections showing a median end-2026 rate of 3.75% have reinforced the view that the Committee will maintain its current stance rather than ease. The slim 1.4% probability assigned to a September cut reflects limited scope for dovish surprises ahead of the next data releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, while the 37% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around potential hikes or mixed outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 63%
Other 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
$717,665 Vol.
$717,665 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
63%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
37%
Pause–Pause–Pause 63%
Other 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
$717,665 Vol.
$717,665 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$286,408 Vol.
63%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$67,223 Vol.
1%
Other
$308,157 Vol.
37%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt among FOMC participants have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the September 2026 meeting.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.5%–3.75% at both the June and July gatherings—the latter on a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 62.5%. Elevated core PCE readings and June SEP projections showing a median end-2026 rate of 3.75% have reinforced the view that the Committee will maintain its current stance rather than ease. The slim 1.4% probability assigned to a September cut reflects limited scope for dovish surprises ahead of the next data releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, while the 37% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around potential hikes or mixed outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$717,665Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt among FOMC participants have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the September 2026 meeting.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.5%–3.75% at both the June and July gatherings—the latter on a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 62.5%. Elevated core PCE readings and June SEP projections showing a median end-2026 rate of 3.75% have reinforced the view that the Committee will maintain its current stance rather than ease. The slim 1.4% probability assigned to a September cut reflects limited scope for dovish surprises ahead of the next data releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, while the 37% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around potential hikes or mixed outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$717,665Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt among FOMC participants have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the September 2026 meeting.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.5%–3.75% at both the June and July gatherings—the latter on a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 62.5%. Elevated core PCE readings and June SEP projections showing a median end-2026 rate of 3.75% have reinforced the view that the Committee will maintain its current stance rather than ease. The slim 1.4% probability assigned to a September cut reflects limited scope for dovish surprises ahead of the next data releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, while the 37% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around potential hikes or mixed outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes