Persistent inflation around 3.7% PCE, driven by supply shocks including energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance, with three dissents favoring a hike and June SEP projections revised upward to a 3.8% median for year-end 2026, has reduced expectations for easing. Solid GDP growth, productivity gains, and stable unemployment have further supported a higher-for-longer path, with upcoming September, October, and December meetings likely to determine any final adjustments. Trader consensus clusters around 3.75%-4.25% as the most probable outcomes reflecting these dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,0% 39.4%
3.75% 25.8%
4.25% 18.1%
3.5% 8.1%
$6,785,618 Vol.
$6,785,618 Vol.
8 dic 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3,0%
<1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
26%
4,0%
39%
4.25%
18%
≥ 4.5%
5%
4,0% 39.4%
3.75% 25.8%
4.25% 18.1%
3.5% 8.1%
$6,785,618 Vol.
$6,785,618 Vol.
8 dic 2026
≤1,0%
$250,471 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$144,104 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$147,116 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,616 Vol.
<1%
2,0%
$264,912 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,746 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$175,586 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$62,117 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$489,421 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$66,940 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$203,350 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$532,866 Vol.
26%
4,0%
$1,370,616 Vol.
39%
4.25%
$430,715 Vol.
18%
≥ 4.5%
$2,409,043 Vol.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation around 3.7% PCE, driven by supply shocks including energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance, with three dissents favoring a hike and June SEP projections revised upward to a 3.8% median for year-end 2026, has reduced expectations for easing. Solid GDP growth, productivity gains, and stable unemployment have further supported a higher-for-longer path, with upcoming September, October, and December meetings likely to determine any final adjustments. Trader consensus clusters around 3.75%-4.25% as the most probable outcomes reflecting these dynamics.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$6,785,618Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation around 3.7% PCE, driven by supply shocks including energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance, with three dissents favoring a hike and June SEP projections revised upward to a 3.8% median for year-end 2026, has reduced expectations for easing. Solid GDP growth, productivity gains, and stable unemployment have further supported a higher-for-longer path, with upcoming September, October, and December meetings likely to determine any final adjustments. Trader consensus clusters around 3.75%-4.25% as the most probable outcomes reflecting these dynamics.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,785,618Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation around 3.7% PCE, driven by supply shocks including energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance, with three dissents favoring a hike and June SEP projections revised upward to a 3.8% median for year-end 2026, has reduced expectations for easing. Solid GDP growth, productivity gains, and stable unemployment have further supported a higher-for-longer path, with upcoming September, October, and December meetings likely to determine any final adjustments. Trader consensus clusters around 3.75%-4.25% as the most probable outcomes reflecting these dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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