The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% target range, the first hike since 2023, serves as the primary catalyst for the 83.5% market-implied odds of another increase before year-end. Hawkish projections from 16 of 18 participants signaled at least one additional quarter-point move, driven by August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, resilient domestic spending, solid growth forecasts around 2.3%, and a stable labor market. Elevated inflation expectations, reinforced by geopolitical and tariff-related pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward further tightening at the October or December meetings, with futures pricing consistent with that path while acknowledging data-dependent risks.