Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026—the softest pace since August 2022—has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 outcome. Government energy subsidy adjustments and base effects have tempered headline pressures while underlying service and wage-driven inflation remains sticky near BoJ targets. The central bank's April 2026 outlook projected core-core inflation near 2.2% for fiscal 2026 amid yen weakness and Middle East-related commodity risks, with the June 25 bp rate hike reinforcing expectations of gradual normalization. Upcoming monthly releases and any further BoJ communications on the policy rate path represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within the narrow 45-55% contest between the top two buckets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 40%
4,0 %+ 8.4%
2.5-2.9% 2.3%
$36,027 Vol.
$36,027 Vol.
12 feb 2027
≤1.9%
40%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3,0-3,4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4,0 %+
8%
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 40%
4,0 %+ 8.4%
2.5-2.9% 2.3%
$36,027 Vol.
$36,027 Vol.
12 feb 2027
≤1.9%
$10,996 Vol.
40%
2.0-2.4%
$14,788 Vol.
54%
2.5-2.9%
$8,233 Vol.
2%
3,0-3,4%
$586 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$642 Vol.
1%
4,0 %+
$782 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026—the softest pace since August 2022—has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 outcome. Government energy subsidy adjustments and base effects have tempered headline pressures while underlying service and wage-driven inflation remains sticky near BoJ targets. The central bank's April 2026 outlook projected core-core inflation near 2.2% for fiscal 2026 amid yen weakness and Middle East-related commodity risks, with the June 25 bp rate hike reinforcing expectations of gradual normalization. Upcoming monthly releases and any further BoJ communications on the policy rate path represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within the narrow 45-55% contest between the top two buckets.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$36,027Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026—the softest pace since August 2022—has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 outcome. Government energy subsidy adjustments and base effects have tempered headline pressures while underlying service and wage-driven inflation remains sticky near BoJ targets. The central bank's April 2026 outlook projected core-core inflation near 2.2% for fiscal 2026 amid yen weakness and Middle East-related commodity risks, with the June 25 bp rate hike reinforcing expectations of gradual normalization. Upcoming monthly releases and any further BoJ communications on the policy rate path represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within the narrow 45-55% contest between the top two buckets.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volumen
$36,027Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026—the softest pace since August 2022—has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 outcome. Government energy subsidy adjustments and base effects have tempered headline pressures while underlying service and wage-driven inflation remains sticky near BoJ targets. The central bank's April 2026 outlook projected core-core inflation near 2.2% for fiscal 2026 amid yen weakness and Middle East-related commodity risks, with the June 25 bp rate hike reinforcing expectations of gradual normalization. Upcoming monthly releases and any further BoJ communications on the policy rate path represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within the narrow 45-55% contest between the top two buckets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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