Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated global oil prices, driving Canada's March 2026 CPI to 2.4% year-over-year—up from 1.8% in February—primarily through a 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline costs. The Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report revised its 2026 annual inflation projection to 2.3%, citing persistent energy effects offset only partially by the suspended federal fuel tax, with expectations of easing toward the 2% target in 2027. These developments underpin the tight contest between the 2.5–2.9% range (48.4% implied probability) and the 1.5–1.9% bucket (41.6%), as traders weigh the durability of the oil shock against subdued core measures and weak domestic growth. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around energy normalization and potential Bank of Canada rate adjustments ahead of the next policy decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoInflación anual de Canadá 2026
Inflación anual de Canadá 2026
2.5–2.9% 47.9%
3,5-3,9% 33.1%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.7%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
18 ene 2027
<1,0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
40%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
48%
3,0-3,4%
39%
3,5-3,9%
33%
4.0%+
35%
2.5–2.9% 47.9%
3,5-3,9% 33.1%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.7%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
18 ene 2027
<1,0%
$318 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$355 Vol.
6%
1.5–1.9%
$656 Vol.
40%
2.0–2.4%
$468 Vol.
20%
2.5–2.9%
$502 Vol.
48%
3,0-3,4%
$13,465 Vol.
39%
3,5-3,9%
$287 Vol.
33%
4.0%+
$357 Vol.
35%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated global oil prices, driving Canada's March 2026 CPI to 2.4% year-over-year—up from 1.8% in February—primarily through a 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline costs. The Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report revised its 2026 annual inflation projection to 2.3%, citing persistent energy effects offset only partially by the suspended federal fuel tax, with expectations of easing toward the 2% target in 2027. These developments underpin the tight contest between the 2.5–2.9% range (48.4% implied probability) and the 1.5–1.9% bucket (41.6%), as traders weigh the durability of the oil shock against subdued core measures and weak domestic growth. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around energy normalization and potential Bank of Canada rate adjustments ahead of the next policy decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volumen
$16,408Fecha de finalización
18 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated global oil prices, driving Canada's March 2026 CPI to 2.4% year-over-year—up from 1.8% in February—primarily through a 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline costs. The Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report revised its 2026 annual inflation projection to 2.3%, citing persistent energy effects offset only partially by the suspended federal fuel tax, with expectations of easing toward the 2% target in 2027. These developments underpin the tight contest between the 2.5–2.9% range (48.4% implied probability) and the 1.5–1.9% bucket (41.6%), as traders weigh the durability of the oil shock against subdued core measures and weak domestic growth. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around energy normalization and potential Bank of Canada rate adjustments ahead of the next policy decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volumen
$16,408Fecha de finalización
18 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated global oil prices, driving Canada's March 2026 CPI to 2.4% year-over-year—up from 1.8% in February—primarily through a 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline costs. The Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report revised its 2026 annual inflation projection to 2.3%, citing persistent energy effects offset only partially by the suspended federal fuel tax, with expectations of easing toward the 2% target in 2027. These developments underpin the tight contest between the 2.5–2.9% range (48.4% implied probability) and the 1.5–1.9% bucket (41.6%), as traders weigh the durability of the oil shock against subdued core measures and weak domestic growth. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around energy normalization and potential Bank of Canada rate adjustments ahead of the next policy decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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