Recent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% and RBI revisions projecting FY2027 average inflation near 5.0% underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for India’s 2026 annual inflation finishing at or above 4.50%. Persistent food-price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to West Asia supply risks, and unfavorable base effects are lifting readings through year-end, with Q3 peaks near 5.9% in central-bank projections. Traders assign only modest weight to lower bands given the RBI’s neutral stance at the 5.25% repo rate and resilient growth that limits downside surprises. Key near-term catalysts include August-September prints, monsoon outcomes, and the next Monetary Policy Committee review.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,50%+ 80%
3,75% a 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.8%
3,00% a 3,74% 3.0%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
1%
2.25% a 2.99%
1%
3,00% a 3,74%
3%
3,75% a 4,49%
13%
4,50%+
80%
4,50%+ 80%
3,75% a 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.8%
3,00% a 3,74% 3.0%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$1,769 Vol.
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$1,265 Vol.
1%
2.25% a 2.99%
$24,989 Vol.
1%
3,00% a 3,74%
$2,081 Vol.
3%
3,75% a 4,49%
$29,492 Vol.
13%
4,50%+
$17,238 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% and RBI revisions projecting FY2027 average inflation near 5.0% underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for India’s 2026 annual inflation finishing at or above 4.50%. Persistent food-price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to West Asia supply risks, and unfavorable base effects are lifting readings through year-end, with Q3 peaks near 5.9% in central-bank projections. Traders assign only modest weight to lower bands given the RBI’s neutral stance at the 5.25% repo rate and resilient growth that limits downside surprises. Key near-term catalysts include August-September prints, monsoon outcomes, and the next Monetary Policy Committee review.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$78,025Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% and RBI revisions projecting FY2027 average inflation near 5.0% underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for India’s 2026 annual inflation finishing at or above 4.50%. Persistent food-price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to West Asia supply risks, and unfavorable base effects are lifting readings through year-end, with Q3 peaks near 5.9% in central-bank projections. Traders assign only modest weight to lower bands given the RBI’s neutral stance at the 5.25% repo rate and resilient growth that limits downside surprises. Key near-term catalysts include August-September prints, monsoon outcomes, and the next Monetary Policy Committee review.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$78,025Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45% and RBI revisions projecting FY2027 average inflation near 5.0% underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for India’s 2026 annual inflation finishing at or above 4.50%. Persistent food-price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to West Asia supply risks, and unfavorable base effects are lifting readings through year-end, with Q3 peaks near 5.9% in central-bank projections. Traders assign only modest weight to lower bands given the RBI’s neutral stance at the 5.25% repo rate and resilient growth that limits downside surprises. Key near-term catalysts include August-September prints, monsoon outcomes, and the next Monetary Policy Committee review.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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