Polymarket traders price an 81.5% implied probability that India’s calendar year 2026 CPI inflation exceeds 4.50%, reflecting Reserve Bank of India’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with quarterly estimates peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid $85 per barrel crude oil assumptions and West Asia tensions. This consensus solidified after April CPI quickened to 3.48%—a six-month high driven by food, core, and services pressures—marking sustained upward momentum from March’s 3.40%. Upside risks from energy volatility and food supply dominate sentiment, pricing lower bins below 10%, with May CPI data and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,50%+ 82%
2.25% a 2.99% 8.1%
<0,75% 4.0%
1,50% a 2,24% 2.9%
$60,464 Vol.
$60,464 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
2%
1,50% a 2,24%
3%
2.25% a 2.99%
8%
3,00% a 3,74%
7%
3,75% a 4,49%
1%
4,50%+
82%
4,50%+ 82%
2.25% a 2.99% 8.1%
<0,75% 4.0%
1,50% a 2,24% 2.9%
$60,464 Vol.
$60,464 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$806 Vol.
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
$525 Vol.
2%
1,50% a 2,24%
$415 Vol.
3%
2.25% a 2.99%
$23,739 Vol.
8%
3,00% a 3,74%
$517 Vol.
7%
3,75% a 4,49%
$23,208 Vol.
1%
4,50%+
$11,254 Vol.
82%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders price an 81.5% implied probability that India’s calendar year 2026 CPI inflation exceeds 4.50%, reflecting Reserve Bank of India’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with quarterly estimates peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid $85 per barrel crude oil assumptions and West Asia tensions. This consensus solidified after April CPI quickened to 3.48%—a six-month high driven by food, core, and services pressures—marking sustained upward momentum from March’s 3.40%. Upside risks from energy volatility and food supply dominate sentiment, pricing lower bins below 10%, with May CPI data and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$60,464Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders price an 81.5% implied probability that India’s calendar year 2026 CPI inflation exceeds 4.50%, reflecting Reserve Bank of India’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with quarterly estimates peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid $85 per barrel crude oil assumptions and West Asia tensions. This consensus solidified after April CPI quickened to 3.48%—a six-month high driven by food, core, and services pressures—marking sustained upward momentum from March’s 3.40%. Upside risks from energy volatility and food supply dominate sentiment, pricing lower bins below 10%, with May CPI data and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$60,464Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price an 81.5% implied probability that India’s calendar year 2026 CPI inflation exceeds 4.50%, reflecting Reserve Bank of India’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with quarterly estimates peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid $85 per barrel crude oil assumptions and West Asia tensions. This consensus solidified after April CPI quickened to 3.48%—a six-month high driven by food, core, and services pressures—marking sustained upward momentum from March’s 3.40%. Upside risks from energy volatility and food supply dominate sentiment, pricing lower bins below 10%, with May CPI data and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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