Narendra Modi’s position as prime minister rests on a BJP-led majority secured in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the next general election scheduled for 2029. Recent youth-led protests over voter-roll revisions and the Election Commission have generated visible domestic friction and prompted security responses, yet these have not translated into a viable no-confidence motion, mass defections, or institutional pressure capable of forcing resignation before year-end. Cabinet adjustments and internal party positioning continue without signs of an imminent leadership challenge. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to continuity through December 31, 2026, viewing removal within the narrow remaining window as structurally improbable absent an unforeseen parliamentary or health crisis.