Israel’s October 27, 2026, general election serves as the central driver for trader assessments of Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure as prime minister, with polls showing his Likud-led bloc roughly tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition grouping and neither side projected to secure the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority. Recent testimony from former aides highlighting pre-October 7, 2023, warnings has intensified focus on security accountability, while Netanyahu has emphasized military gains and ruled out resignation even in defeat. Arab parties have signaled conditional willingness to support an anti-Netanyahu minority government, and surplus-vote agreements are due shortly before the vote. A fragmented result could leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister during extended coalition talks or position him as opposition leader, with any shift in bloc alignments or turnout among key voting groups likely to influence the timing of his departure from office.