Ongoing Iran-US conflict and associated maritime security risks have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted through late September 2026, with visible AIS-tracked commercial transits averaging just 3–6 vessels daily versus a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 74–125. Oil flows via dark shipping, ship-to-ship transfers, and alternative routes reached 13–22 million barrels per day in some estimates—below the normal 20 million—while incidents including tanker strikes persisted into September 29. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, naval advisories, and dual transit regimes under competing authorities have sustained non-standard operations rather than restoring routine, high-volume commercial passage. With resolution now past September 30 and conditions unchanged, trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers; tail risks such as rapid full de-escalation or mine clearance remain low-probability given current dynamics.