Ongoing regional tensions between Israel and Iran, including the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary drivers of trader sentiment on potential Israeli airspace closures. Past escalations involving missile and drone exchanges have prompted temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR for civilian operations, as seen earlier in 2026. Current reporting indicates Israeli airspace remains open with normal civil aviation, though airlines continue to limit service amid volatility and official alerts about dynamic security conditions. Low implied probabilities across near-term dates reflect the absence of immediate verified threats requiring closure, while any fresh strikes, retaliatory actions, or heightened alerts could rapidly shift assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks may influence outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$26,847,553 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 de agosto
2%
31 de agosto
9%
$26,847,553 Vol.
15 de agosto
$881,242 Vol.
2%
31 de agosto
$943,126 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions between Israel and Iran, including the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary drivers of trader sentiment on potential Israeli airspace closures. Past escalations involving missile and drone exchanges have prompted temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR for civilian operations, as seen earlier in 2026. Current reporting indicates Israeli airspace remains open with normal civil aviation, though airlines continue to limit service amid volatility and official alerts about dynamic security conditions. Low implied probabilities across near-term dates reflect the absence of immediate verified threats requiring closure, while any fresh strikes, retaliatory actions, or heightened alerts could rapidly shift assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks may influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volumen
$26,847,553Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions between Israel and Iran, including the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary drivers of trader sentiment on potential Israeli airspace closures. Past escalations involving missile and drone exchanges have prompted temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR for civilian operations, as seen earlier in 2026. Current reporting indicates Israeli airspace remains open with normal civil aviation, though airlines continue to limit service amid volatility and official alerts about dynamic security conditions. Low implied probabilities across near-term dates reflect the absence of immediate verified threats requiring closure, while any fresh strikes, retaliatory actions, or heightened alerts could rapidly shift assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks may influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$26,847,553Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions between Israel and Iran, including the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary drivers of trader sentiment on potential Israeli airspace closures. Past escalations involving missile and drone exchanges have prompted temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR for civilian operations, as seen earlier in 2026. Current reporting indicates Israeli airspace remains open with normal civil aviation, though airlines continue to limit service amid volatility and official alerts about dynamic security conditions. Low implied probabilities across near-term dates reflect the absence of immediate verified threats requiring closure, while any fresh strikes, retaliatory actions, or heightened alerts could rapidly shift assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks may influence outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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