Israeli airspace remains open to commercial flights since fully reopening around April 9 following a US-Iran ceasefire that ended major strikes earlier in 2026, yet trader consensus reflects caution amid proxy threats from Iran-aligned groups. A Hezbollah drone incursion on May 10 injured soldiers near the Lebanese border, echoing a May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport that prompted evacuation drills and drove recent market shifts. US military aircraft presence has disrupted operations, while Air France extended suspensions through May 27 due to regional risks. Escalation signals, including today's reports of seized IRGC cells in Kuwait and Iranian war readiness claims, heighten closure odds, though de-escalation diplomacy like Trump's China talks could avert broad suspensions by Israeli aviation authorities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$772,103 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 31
26%
30 de junio
38%
$772,103 Vol.
May 31
$274,717 Vol.
26%
30 de junio
$2,138 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli airspace remains open to commercial flights since fully reopening around April 9 following a US-Iran ceasefire that ended major strikes earlier in 2026, yet trader consensus reflects caution amid proxy threats from Iran-aligned groups. A Hezbollah drone incursion on May 10 injured soldiers near the Lebanese border, echoing a May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport that prompted evacuation drills and drove recent market shifts. US military aircraft presence has disrupted operations, while Air France extended suspensions through May 27 due to regional risks. Escalation signals, including today's reports of seized IRGC cells in Kuwait and Iranian war readiness claims, heighten closure odds, though de-escalation diplomacy like Trump's China talks could avert broad suspensions by Israeli aviation authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$772,103Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli airspace remains open to commercial flights since fully reopening around April 9 following a US-Iran ceasefire that ended major strikes earlier in 2026, yet trader consensus reflects caution amid proxy threats from Iran-aligned groups. A Hezbollah drone incursion on May 10 injured soldiers near the Lebanese border, echoing a May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport that prompted evacuation drills and drove recent market shifts. US military aircraft presence has disrupted operations, while Air France extended suspensions through May 27 due to regional risks. Escalation signals, including today's reports of seized IRGC cells in Kuwait and Iranian war readiness claims, heighten closure odds, though de-escalation diplomacy like Trump's China talks could avert broad suspensions by Israeli aviation authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$772,103Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli airspace remains open to commercial flights since fully reopening around April 9 following a US-Iran ceasefire that ended major strikes earlier in 2026, yet trader consensus reflects caution amid proxy threats from Iran-aligned groups. A Hezbollah drone incursion on May 10 injured soldiers near the Lebanese border, echoing a May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport that prompted evacuation drills and drove recent market shifts. US military aircraft presence has disrupted operations, while Air France extended suspensions through May 27 due to regional risks. Escalation signals, including today's reports of seized IRGC cells in Kuwait and Iranian war readiness claims, heighten closure odds, though de-escalation diplomacy like Trump's China talks could avert broad suspensions by Israeli aviation authorities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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