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Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Sí

26% probabilidad
Polymarket

$28,236,007 Vol.

Sí

26% probabilidad
Polymarket

$28,236,007 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by a two-week ceasefire extension in mid-April 2026 that has held amid Oman-mediated talks, with President Trump stating the seven-week air and naval conflict is "very close to over." U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade since late February inflicted significant damage without committing ground troops, amid nearly 400 U.S. casualties from Iranian retaliation and Senate votes on War Powers resolutions to curb escalation. Vice President Vance's upcoming Pakistan diplomacy signals de-escalation priorities, outweighing speculative buildup reports, as high occupation costs and no casus belli for boots-on-ground sustain low invasion odds despite ongoing tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$28,236,007
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by a two-week ceasefire extension in mid-April 2026 that has held amid Oman-mediated talks, with President Trump stating the seven-week air and naval conflict is "very close to over." U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade since late February inflicted significant damage without committing ground troops, amid nearly 400 U.S. casualties from Iranian retaliation and Senate votes on War Powers resolutions to curb escalation. Vice President Vance's upcoming Pakistan diplomacy signals de-escalation priorities, outweighing speculative buildup reports, as high occupation costs and no casus belli for boots-on-ground sustain low invasion odds despite ongoing tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$28,236,280
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" con 26%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 26¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" ha generado $28.2 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" con 26%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.