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icon for ¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?

¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?

¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?

2% probabilidad
Polymarket

$148,672 Vol.

2% probabilidad
Polymarket

$148,672 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic and military cooperation has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026. Early-year tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela when President Trump publicly floated operations targeting Colombian drug networks and President Petro described a "real threat," prompting Colombian officials to affirm defensive preparations. Those frictions eased following Colombia’s 2026 presidential transition to Abelardo de la Espriella, whose government promptly authorized joint U.S.-Colombian counter-narcotics operations under the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition. With no U.S. troop deployments or unilateral strikes reported through mid-August and shared counternarcotics objectives now driving bilateral planning, the implied 97.7 percent probability on “No” reflects the absence of escalation triggers. Late-year shifts would require abrupt diplomatic rupture or major new drug-related incidents capable of overriding the current cooperative framework.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$148,672
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic and military cooperation has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026. Early-year tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela when President Trump publicly floated operations targeting Colombian drug networks and President Petro described a "real threat," prompting Colombian officials to affirm defensive preparations. Those frictions eased following Colombia’s 2026 presidential transition to Abelardo de la Espriella, whose government promptly authorized joint U.S.-Colombian counter-narcotics operations under the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition. With no U.S. troop deployments or unilateral strikes reported through mid-August and shared counternarcotics objectives now driving bilateral planning, the implied 97.7 percent probability on “No” reflects the absence of escalation triggers. Late-year shifts would require abrupt diplomatic rupture or major new drug-related incidents capable of overriding the current cooperative framework.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$148,672
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Colombia en 2026?" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 2¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 2% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?" ha generado $148.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 5, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?" es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Colombia en 2026?" con solo 2%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos invadirá Colombia en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.