Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro peaked in early 2026 following U.S. military action in Venezuela and related threats over drug trafficking, prompting Colombian officials to describe a "real threat" of intervention. Traders assign only a 2.6% chance of U.S. invasion in 2026 because diplomatic engagement resumed with a February leaders' meeting, Colombia's May presidential election opened a path to potential policy reset under a new administration taking office in August, and longstanding bilateral security cooperation as a major non-NATO ally continued without escalation to sustained military operations. Realistic shifts could stem from major counternarcotics disputes or border incidents, though these remain unlikely to trigger full-scale invasion absent broader regional conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$148,666 Vol.
$148,666 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$148,666 Vol.
$148,666 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro peaked in early 2026 following U.S. military action in Venezuela and related threats over drug trafficking, prompting Colombian officials to describe a "real threat" of intervention. Traders assign only a 2.6% chance of U.S. invasion in 2026 because diplomatic engagement resumed with a February leaders' meeting, Colombia's May presidential election opened a path to potential policy reset under a new administration taking office in August, and longstanding bilateral security cooperation as a major non-NATO ally continued without escalation to sustained military operations. Realistic shifts could stem from major counternarcotics disputes or border incidents, though these remain unlikely to trigger full-scale invasion absent broader regional conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volumen
$148,666Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro peaked in early 2026 following U.S. military action in Venezuela and related threats over drug trafficking, prompting Colombian officials to describe a "real threat" of intervention. Traders assign only a 2.6% chance of U.S. invasion in 2026 because diplomatic engagement resumed with a February leaders' meeting, Colombia's May presidential election opened a path to potential policy reset under a new administration taking office in August, and longstanding bilateral security cooperation as a major non-NATO ally continued without escalation to sustained military operations. Realistic shifts could stem from major counternarcotics disputes or border incidents, though these remain unlikely to trigger full-scale invasion absent broader regional conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$148,666Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the Trump administration and Colombian President Gustavo Petro peaked in early 2026 following U.S. military action in Venezuela and related threats over drug trafficking, prompting Colombian officials to describe a "real threat" of intervention. Traders assign only a 2.6% chance of U.S. invasion in 2026 because diplomatic engagement resumed with a February leaders' meeting, Colombia's May presidential election opened a path to potential policy reset under a new administration taking office in August, and longstanding bilateral security cooperation as a major non-NATO ally continued without escalation to sustained military operations. Realistic shifts could stem from major counternarcotics disputes or border incidents, though these remain unlikely to trigger full-scale invasion absent broader regional conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes