Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19, 2026, reflecting his historically variable weekend output and the lack of immediate high-profile events or product launches likely to trigger spikes. Recent multi-month data peg his daily average near 68 posts, yet short periods without news cycles or Tesla/SpaceX developments frequently dip into the low teens per day, aligning with the market’s 49% implied probability for this bin. The secondary <40 outcome at 30.5% captures the risk of even quieter days, while higher ranges above 65 remain discounted due to the short window and typical Sunday-Monday slowdowns. No major announcements or platform controversies have surfaced in the preceding week to shift momentum, leaving the market anchored to baseline patterns ahead of the period’s close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 49%
<40 31%
65-89 18%
90-114 2.9%
NUEVO
$15,669 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,669 Vol.
19 ago 2026
<40
31%
40-64
49%
65-89
18%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 49%
<40 31%
65-89 18%
90-114 2.9%
NUEVO
$15,669 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,669 Vol.
19 ago 2026
<40
$1,603 Vol.
31%
40-64
$1,724 Vol.
49%
65-89
$490 Vol.
18%
90-114
$684 Vol.
3%
115-139
$1,287 Vol.
1%
140-164
$2,448 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,833 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$1,200 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$700 Vol.
<1%
240+
$700 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19, 2026, reflecting his historically variable weekend output and the lack of immediate high-profile events or product launches likely to trigger spikes. Recent multi-month data peg his daily average near 68 posts, yet short periods without news cycles or Tesla/SpaceX developments frequently dip into the low teens per day, aligning with the market’s 49% implied probability for this bin. The secondary <40 outcome at 30.5% captures the risk of even quieter days, while higher ranges above 65 remain discounted due to the short window and typical Sunday-Monday slowdowns. No major announcements or platform controversies have surfaced in the preceding week to shift momentum, leaving the market anchored to baseline patterns ahead of the period’s close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$15,669Fecha de finalización
19 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19, 2026, reflecting his historically variable weekend output and the lack of immediate high-profile events or product launches likely to trigger spikes. Recent multi-month data peg his daily average near 68 posts, yet short periods without news cycles or Tesla/SpaceX developments frequently dip into the low teens per day, aligning with the market’s 49% implied probability for this bin. The secondary <40 outcome at 30.5% captures the risk of even quieter days, while higher ranges above 65 remain discounted due to the short window and typical Sunday-Monday slowdowns. No major announcements or platform controversies have surfaced in the preceding week to shift momentum, leaving the market anchored to baseline patterns ahead of the period’s close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$15,669Fecha de finalización
19 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19, 2026, reflecting his historically variable weekend output and the lack of immediate high-profile events or product launches likely to trigger spikes. Recent multi-month data peg his daily average near 68 posts, yet short periods without news cycles or Tesla/SpaceX developments frequently dip into the low teens per day, aligning with the market’s 49% implied probability for this bin. The secondary <40 outcome at 30.5% captures the risk of even quieter days, while higher ranges above 65 remain discounted due to the short window and typical Sunday-Monday slowdowns. No major announcements or platform controversies have surfaced in the preceding week to shift momentum, leaving the market anchored to baseline patterns ahead of the period’s close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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