Traders see a 99.3% probability that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the lack of observable large-scale amphibious preparations, troop movements, or supply stockpiling in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Beijing has continued gray-zone pressure through military flights and maritime activity without crossing into overt conflict indicators, while economic interdependence and anticipated international sanctions remain significant deterrents. With only weeks remaining before the resolution date, the absence of escalation signals aligns with historical patterns of incremental coercion rather than sudden military action. Even at this elevated probability, an abrupt shift could follow an unforeseen diplomatic rupture or rapid military buildup, though no such catalysts have appeared in recent verified developments.