Trader consensus on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflects near-unanimous confidence in "No" at 95.5%, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Beijing does not plan a 2027 assault and prioritizes non-military coercion amid uneven PLA modernization progress. No verifiable signs of amphibious invasion preparations—such as large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade rehearsals—have emerged in the past 30 days, following December 2025 exercises. Strong U.S. deterrence, including troop deployments near the Taiwan Strait, bolsters this positioning against historical invasion barriers like weather windows in April-May and September-October. Scenarios like sudden escalation, diplomatic rupture, or domestic crisis in China could shift odds, though probabilities exceed 90%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$463,611 Vol.
$463,611 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
$463,611 Vol.
$463,611 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflects near-unanimous confidence in "No" at 95.5%, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Beijing does not plan a 2027 assault and prioritizes non-military coercion amid uneven PLA modernization progress. No verifiable signs of amphibious invasion preparations—such as large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade rehearsals—have emerged in the past 30 days, following December 2025 exercises. Strong U.S. deterrence, including troop deployments near the Taiwan Strait, bolsters this positioning against historical invasion barriers like weather windows in April-May and September-October. Scenarios like sudden escalation, diplomatic rupture, or domestic crisis in China could shift odds, though probabilities exceed 90%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$463,611Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflects near-unanimous confidence in "No" at 95.5%, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Beijing does not plan a 2027 assault and prioritizes non-military coercion amid uneven PLA modernization progress. No verifiable signs of amphibious invasion preparations—such as large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade rehearsals—have emerged in the past 30 days, following December 2025 exercises. Strong U.S. deterrence, including troop deployments near the Taiwan Strait, bolsters this positioning against historical invasion barriers like weather windows in April-May and September-October. Scenarios like sudden escalation, diplomatic rupture, or domestic crisis in China could shift odds, though probabilities exceed 90%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$463,611Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflects near-unanimous confidence in "No" at 95.5%, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Beijing does not plan a 2027 assault and prioritizes non-military coercion amid uneven PLA modernization progress. No verifiable signs of amphibious invasion preparations—such as large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade rehearsals—have emerged in the past 30 days, following December 2025 exercises. Strong U.S. deterrence, including troop deployments near the Taiwan Strait, bolsters this positioning against historical invasion barriers like weather windows in April-May and September-October. Scenarios like sudden escalation, diplomatic rupture, or domestic crisis in China could shift odds, though probabilities exceed 90%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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