Apple's ongoing tests of CXMT DRAM for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. approval amid AI-driven memory shortages have not overcome key barriers, keeping the "No" outcome at 72.5% implied probability. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, Commerce Department resistance, and broader U.S.-China export restrictions create significant hurdles for any 2026 purchases, even as Apple seeks supply diversification beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Recent reports of CXMT rejecting pricing talks and political sensitivities around technology transfer further tilt trader consensus toward delays or limited scope. Key catalysts ahead include White House clearance decisions and any supply agreements tied to 2026 iPhone or MacBook cycles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
28% probabilidad
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
28% probabilidad
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
31 dic 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing tests of CXMT DRAM for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. approval amid AI-driven memory shortages have not overcome key barriers, keeping the "No" outcome at 72.5% implied probability. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, Commerce Department resistance, and broader U.S.-China export restrictions create significant hurdles for any 2026 purchases, even as Apple seeks supply diversification beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Recent reports of CXMT rejecting pricing talks and political sensitivities around technology transfer further tilt trader consensus toward delays or limited scope. Key catalysts ahead include White House clearance decisions and any supply agreements tied to 2026 iPhone or MacBook cycles.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$15,070Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing tests of CXMT DRAM for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. approval amid AI-driven memory shortages have not overcome key barriers, keeping the "No" outcome at 72.5% implied probability. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, Commerce Department resistance, and broader U.S.-China export restrictions create significant hurdles for any 2026 purchases, even as Apple seeks supply diversification beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Recent reports of CXMT rejecting pricing talks and political sensitivities around technology transfer further tilt trader consensus toward delays or limited scope. Key catalysts ahead include White House clearance decisions and any supply agreements tied to 2026 iPhone or MacBook cycles.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$15,070Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's ongoing tests of CXMT DRAM for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. approval amid AI-driven memory shortages have not overcome key barriers, keeping the "No" outcome at 72.5% implied probability. CXMT's placement on the Pentagon blacklist, Commerce Department resistance, and broader U.S.-China export restrictions create significant hurdles for any 2026 purchases, even as Apple seeks supply diversification beyond Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Recent reports of CXMT rejecting pricing talks and political sensitivities around technology transfer further tilt trader consensus toward delays or limited scope. Key catalysts ahead include White House clearance decisions and any supply agreements tied to 2026 iPhone or MacBook cycles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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