US regulatory barriers and political opposition remain the dominant force behind the 81.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM in 2026. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer, sits on the Pentagon’s military company list, triggering restrictions that block technology transfers and complicate custom memory qualification for iPhones or MacBooks. Despite Apple’s recent testing of CXMT chips and lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance—driven by AI-fueled memory shortages and price spikes—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and bipartisan senators have explicitly urged the company to avoid the supplier, even for China-only devices. These dynamics, combined with export-control risks and supply-chain scrutiny, sustain trader consensus that meaningful volume purchases are improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
19% probabilidad
$15,484 Vol.
$15,484 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
19% probabilidad
$15,484 Vol.
$15,484 Vol.
31 dic 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US regulatory barriers and political opposition remain the dominant force behind the 81.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM in 2026. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer, sits on the Pentagon’s military company list, triggering restrictions that block technology transfers and complicate custom memory qualification for iPhones or MacBooks. Despite Apple’s recent testing of CXMT chips and lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance—driven by AI-fueled memory shortages and price spikes—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and bipartisan senators have explicitly urged the company to avoid the supplier, even for China-only devices. These dynamics, combined with export-control risks and supply-chain scrutiny, sustain trader consensus that meaningful volume purchases are improbable before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$15,484Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US regulatory barriers and political opposition remain the dominant force behind the 81.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM in 2026. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer, sits on the Pentagon’s military company list, triggering restrictions that block technology transfers and complicate custom memory qualification for iPhones or MacBooks. Despite Apple’s recent testing of CXMT chips and lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance—driven by AI-fueled memory shortages and price spikes—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and bipartisan senators have explicitly urged the company to avoid the supplier, even for China-only devices. These dynamics, combined with export-control risks and supply-chain scrutiny, sustain trader consensus that meaningful volume purchases are improbable before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$15,484Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US regulatory barriers and political opposition remain the dominant force behind the 81.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM in 2026. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer, sits on the Pentagon’s military company list, triggering restrictions that block technology transfers and complicate custom memory qualification for iPhones or MacBooks. Despite Apple’s recent testing of CXMT chips and lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance—driven by AI-fueled memory shortages and price spikes—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and bipartisan senators have explicitly urged the company to avoid the supplier, even for China-only devices. These dynamics, combined with export-control risks and supply-chain scrutiny, sustain trader consensus that meaningful volume purchases are improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes