Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November due to its September 1 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with scores near 84.7 and outperformed peers on agentic coding, reasoning, and scientific tasks. These large language models demonstrated measurable advances, including optimizing over 30 biomolecular models for 4x speed gains and contributing to 26% of Anthropic’s own R&D under human oversight. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, remains competitive on some indices but trails in key benchmarks, while Google and others show lower market-implied odds amid slower frontier progress. Safety evaluations and enterprise positioning further reinforce Anthropic’s edge ahead of potential follow-on updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
SpaceXAI 4.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
9%
7%
SpaceXAI
4%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Amazon
4%
ByteDance
4%
Moonshot
3%
StepFun
3%
Nvidia
3%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Thinky
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
SpaceXAI 4.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
Anthropic
$713 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$334 Vol.
9%
$277 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$125 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$111 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$158 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$155 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$186 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$158 Vol.
3%
Meta
$123 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$84 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$156 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$120 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$74 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$74 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$123 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November due to its September 1 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with scores near 84.7 and outperformed peers on agentic coding, reasoning, and scientific tasks. These large language models demonstrated measurable advances, including optimizing over 30 biomolecular models for 4x speed gains and contributing to 26% of Anthropic’s own R&D under human oversight. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, remains competitive on some indices but trails in key benchmarks, while Google and others show lower market-implied odds amid slower frontier progress. Safety evaluations and enterprise positioning further reinforce Anthropic’s edge ahead of potential follow-on updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$3,474Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November due to its September 1 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with scores near 84.7 and outperformed peers on agentic coding, reasoning, and scientific tasks. These large language models demonstrated measurable advances, including optimizing over 30 biomolecular models for 4x speed gains and contributing to 26% of Anthropic’s own R&D under human oversight. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, remains competitive on some indices but trails in key benchmarks, while Google and others show lower market-implied odds amid slower frontier progress. Safety evaluations and enterprise positioning further reinforce Anthropic’s edge ahead of potential follow-on updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$3,474Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November due to its September 1 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with scores near 84.7 and outperformed peers on agentic coding, reasoning, and scientific tasks. These large language models demonstrated measurable advances, including optimizing over 30 biomolecular models for 4x speed gains and contributing to 26% of Anthropic’s own R&D under human oversight. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, remains competitive on some indices but trails in key benchmarks, while Google and others show lower market-implied odds amid slower frontier progress. Safety evaluations and enterprise positioning further reinforce Anthropic’s edge ahead of potential follow-on updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes