China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has conducted fewer ballistic missile tests in recent months amid an ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has removed senior officers and disrupted training schedules. A July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training, drew regional protests over notification shortfalls but has not been followed by additional public firings. Analysts attribute the subsequent summer lull to internal purges rather than external signaling needs, with no major diplomatic crises or exercises currently requiring fresh demonstrations. Traders therefore assign high probability to no further launch occurring before year-end, viewing the current pause as consistent with constrained operational tempo.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Lanzamiento de misiles balísticos de China antes del 31 de diciembre?
¿Lanzamiento de misiles balísticos de China antes del 31 de diciembre?
Sí
21% probabilidad
$10,918 Vol.
$10,918 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
21% probabilidad
$10,918 Vol.
$10,918 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has conducted fewer ballistic missile tests in recent months amid an ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has removed senior officers and disrupted training schedules. A July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training, drew regional protests over notification shortfalls but has not been followed by additional public firings. Analysts attribute the subsequent summer lull to internal purges rather than external signaling needs, with no major diplomatic crises or exercises currently requiring fresh demonstrations. Traders therefore assign high probability to no further launch occurring before year-end, viewing the current pause as consistent with constrained operational tempo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado abierto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volumen
$10,918Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has conducted fewer ballistic missile tests in recent months amid an ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has removed senior officers and disrupted training schedules. A July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training, drew regional protests over notification shortfalls but has not been followed by additional public firings. Analysts attribute the subsequent summer lull to internal purges rather than external signaling needs, with no major diplomatic crises or exercises currently requiring fresh demonstrations. Traders therefore assign high probability to no further launch occurring before year-end, viewing the current pause as consistent with constrained operational tempo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$10,918Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has conducted fewer ballistic missile tests in recent months amid an ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has removed senior officers and disrupted training schedules. A July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine annual training, drew regional protests over notification shortfalls but has not been followed by additional public firings. Analysts attribute the subsequent summer lull to internal purges rather than external signaling needs, with no major diplomatic crises or exercises currently requiring fresh demonstrations. Traders therefore assign high probability to no further launch occurring before year-end, viewing the current pause as consistent with constrained operational tempo.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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