China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, from a Type 094 Jin-class vessel in the South China Sea, with the dummy warhead traveling thousands of kilometers into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some nations, prompting criticism from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Pacific Island states over transparency and regional stability. This marked the second such Pacific-range test in under two years, underscoring ongoing development of sea-based nuclear capabilities and second-strike options. No additional launches have been reported since, consistent with the low frequency of prior Chinese ICBM or SLBM tests into international waters. Traders appear to view another test before year-end as unlikely absent major shifts in tensions or military signaling needs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Lanzamiento de misiles balísticos de China antes del 31 de diciembre?
¿Lanzamiento de misiles balísticos de China antes del 31 de diciembre?
Sí
18% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
18% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, from a Type 094 Jin-class vessel in the South China Sea, with the dummy warhead traveling thousands of kilometers into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some nations, prompting criticism from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Pacific Island states over transparency and regional stability. This marked the second such Pacific-range test in under two years, underscoring ongoing development of sea-based nuclear capabilities and second-strike options. No additional launches have been reported since, consistent with the low frequency of prior Chinese ICBM or SLBM tests into international waters. Traders appear to view another test before year-end as unlikely absent major shifts in tensions or military signaling needs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado abierto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volumen
$8,795Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, from a Type 094 Jin-class vessel in the South China Sea, with the dummy warhead traveling thousands of kilometers into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some nations, prompting criticism from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Pacific Island states over transparency and regional stability. This marked the second such Pacific-range test in under two years, underscoring ongoing development of sea-based nuclear capabilities and second-strike options. No additional launches have been reported since, consistent with the low frequency of prior Chinese ICBM or SLBM tests into international waters. Traders appear to view another test before year-end as unlikely absent major shifts in tensions or military signaling needs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$8,795Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, from a Type 094 Jin-class vessel in the South China Sea, with the dummy warhead traveling thousands of kilometers into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some nations, prompting criticism from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Pacific Island states over transparency and regional stability. This marked the second such Pacific-range test in under two years, underscoring ongoing development of sea-based nuclear capabilities and second-strike options. No additional launches have been reported since, consistent with the low frequency of prior Chinese ICBM or SLBM tests into international waters. Traders appear to view another test before year-end as unlikely absent major shifts in tensions or military signaling needs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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