**US and China officials have advanced structured talks on reciprocal tariff reductions through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.** Negotiators are targeting equivalent cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with most-favored-nation or lower rates under consideration for items including U.S. energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs. Recent pre-summit discussions ahead of the September 24 leaders’ meeting in Washington have focused on specific concessions to extend the October 2025 trade truce, which pauses certain duties and measures until November 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s upcoming talks with his Chinese counterpart and Chinese statements favoring early tariff agreements reinforce expectations of further de-escalation or formal arrangements before year-end. These diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader consensus on the high likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado89% probabilidad
$252,200 Vol.
$252,200 Vol.
31 dic 2026
89% probabilidad
$252,200 Vol.
$252,200 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US and China officials have advanced structured talks on reciprocal tariff reductions through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.** Negotiators are targeting equivalent cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with most-favored-nation or lower rates under consideration for items including U.S. energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs.
Recent pre-summit discussions ahead of the September 24 leaders’ meeting in Washington have focused on specific concessions to extend the October 2025 trade truce, which pauses certain duties and measures until November 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s upcoming talks with his Chinese counterpart and Chinese statements favoring early tariff agreements reinforce expectations of further de-escalation or formal arrangements before year-end. These diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader consensus on the high likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volumen
$252,200Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US and China officials have advanced structured talks on reciprocal tariff reductions through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.** Negotiators are targeting equivalent cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with most-favored-nation or lower rates under consideration for items including U.S. energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs.
Recent pre-summit discussions ahead of the September 24 leaders’ meeting in Washington have focused on specific concessions to extend the October 2025 trade truce, which pauses certain duties and measures until November 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s upcoming talks with his Chinese counterpart and Chinese statements favoring early tariff agreements reinforce expectations of further de-escalation or formal arrangements before year-end. These diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader consensus on the high likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$252,200Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US and China officials have advanced structured talks on reciprocal tariff reductions through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.** Negotiators are targeting equivalent cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with most-favored-nation or lower rates under consideration for items including U.S. energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs. Recent pre-summit discussions ahead of the September 24 leaders’ meeting in Washington have focused on specific concessions to extend the October 2025 trade truce, which pauses certain duties and measures until November 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s upcoming talks with his Chinese counterpart and Chinese statements favoring early tariff agreements reinforce expectations of further de-escalation or formal arrangements before year-end. These diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader consensus on the high likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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