US assessments indicate that Chinese military readiness shortfalls, including delays from ongoing anti-corruption purges in the People's Liberation Army, make a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2028 increasingly unlikely, despite the 2027 PLA centenary serving as a capability target rather than an action deadline. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense report similarly concludes that the PLA currently lacks sufficient amphibious, logistics, and air-sea control capabilities for a complex landing operation. Beijing has emphasized gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols and routine ADIZ incursions while pursuing diplomatic engagement, including the September 2026 Xi-Trump summit that produced a trade truce extension without altering core cross-strait dynamics. Traders price in these factors alongside Beijing's interest in Taiwan's 2028 presidential election outcomes as supporting a low probability of invasion by the end of 2027.