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Política·China

¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?

icon for ¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?
Política·China

¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?

jun 30

sep 30

dic 31

jun 30, 2027

jun 30

sep 30

dic 31

jun 30, 2027

Sí

18% probabilidad
Polymarket

$574,226 Vol.

Sí

18% probabilidad
Polymarket

$574,226 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026, including the ODNI annual threat report, concluded that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, favoring non-military coercion—a view reinforced by the Wall Street Journal citing official sources. This has driven the 82.5% "No" trader consensus on Polymarket, reflecting deterrence from U.S. arms sales, Taiwan's defenses, and Beijing's economic challenges amid slowing growth. The May 13 Trump-Xi summit produced no Taiwan surprises, with routine PLA drills like December's "Justice Mission-2025" normalized as gray-zone pressure rather than invasion precursors. Barriers include high military costs, potential U.S. intervention, and diplomatic risks, though rhetoric persists ahead of 2027 PLA centennial goals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$574,226
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027
Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026, including the ODNI annual threat report, concluded that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, favoring non-military coercion—a view reinforced by the Wall Street Journal citing official sources. This has driven the 82.5% "No" trader consensus on Polymarket, reflecting deterrence from U.S. arms sales, Taiwan's defenses, and Beijing's economic challenges amid slowing growth. The May 13 Trump-Xi summit produced no Taiwan surprises, with routine PLA drills like December's "Justice Mission-2025" normalized as gray-zone pressure rather than invasion precursors. Barriers include high military costs, potential U.S. intervention, and diplomatic risks, though rhetoric persists ahead of 2027 PLA centennial goals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$574,226
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027
Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá China Taiwán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027?" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 18¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" ha generado $574.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" es "¿Invadirá China Taiwán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027?" con 18%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.