Persistent low-level maritime friction in the South China Sea continues to shape trader views, with the latest September 18 collision near Sabina Shoal involving a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine fisheries bureau boat remaining confined to non-lethal ramming and mutual accusations. Earlier July incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal featured water cannons and baton strikes but produced no fatalities or naval gunfire. Both governments have sustained diplomatic summonses, envoy meetings, and calls to avoid miscalculation while conducting parallel U.S.-Philippines joint patrols and resupply missions. These patterns of gray-zone coercion without crossing into organized military engagement support the current 70% implied probability that no qualifying clash occurs before the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
31% probabilidad
$473,022 Vol.
$473,022 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
31% probabilidad
$473,022 Vol.
$473,022 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low-level maritime friction in the South China Sea continues to shape trader views, with the latest September 18 collision near Sabina Shoal involving a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine fisheries bureau boat remaining confined to non-lethal ramming and mutual accusations. Earlier July incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal featured water cannons and baton strikes but produced no fatalities or naval gunfire. Both governments have sustained diplomatic summonses, envoy meetings, and calls to avoid miscalculation while conducting parallel U.S.-Philippines joint patrols and resupply missions. These patterns of gray-zone coercion without crossing into organized military engagement support the current 70% implied probability that no qualifying clash occurs before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$473,022Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low-level maritime friction in the South China Sea continues to shape trader views, with the latest September 18 collision near Sabina Shoal involving a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine fisheries bureau boat remaining confined to non-lethal ramming and mutual accusations. Earlier July incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal featured water cannons and baton strikes but produced no fatalities or naval gunfire. Both governments have sustained diplomatic summonses, envoy meetings, and calls to avoid miscalculation while conducting parallel U.S.-Philippines joint patrols and resupply missions. These patterns of gray-zone coercion without crossing into organized military engagement support the current 70% implied probability that no qualifying clash occurs before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$473,022Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent low-level maritime friction in the South China Sea continues to shape trader views, with the latest September 18 collision near Sabina Shoal involving a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine fisheries bureau boat remaining confined to non-lethal ramming and mutual accusations. Earlier July incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal featured water cannons and baton strikes but produced no fatalities or naval gunfire. Both governments have sustained diplomatic summonses, envoy meetings, and calls to avoid miscalculation while conducting parallel U.S.-Philippines joint patrols and resupply missions. These patterns of gray-zone coercion without crossing into organized military engagement support the current 70% implied probability that no qualifying clash occurs before the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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