US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and favor coercive measures short of war to advance unification goals. Beijing has sustained gray-zone activities such as reduced ADIZ incursions, Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen, and periodic live-fire drills, without signs of mobilization for amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with enhanced Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, incorporating reservist call-ups, drone integration, anti-blockade drills, and supply-chain resilience measures. These developments, alongside China's uneven military progress and preference for political-economic pressure, underpin trader consensus that an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date remains unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?
¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?
Sí
9% probabilidad
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sí
9% probabilidad
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and favor coercive measures short of war to advance unification goals. Beijing has sustained gray-zone activities such as reduced ADIZ incursions, Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen, and periodic live-fire drills, without signs of mobilization for amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with enhanced Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, incorporating reservist call-ups, drone integration, anti-blockade drills, and supply-chain resilience measures. These developments, alongside China's uneven military progress and preference for political-economic pressure, underpin trader consensus that an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volumen
$419,407Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and favor coercive measures short of war to advance unification goals. Beijing has sustained gray-zone activities such as reduced ADIZ incursions, Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen, and periodic live-fire drills, without signs of mobilization for amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with enhanced Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, incorporating reservist call-ups, drone integration, anti-blockade drills, and supply-chain resilience measures. These developments, alongside China's uneven military progress and preference for political-economic pressure, underpin trader consensus that an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$419,407Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and favor coercive measures short of war to advance unification goals. Beijing has sustained gray-zone activities such as reduced ADIZ incursions, Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen, and periodic live-fire drills, without signs of mobilization for amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with enhanced Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, incorporating reservist call-ups, drone integration, anti-blockade drills, and supply-chain resilience measures. These developments, alongside China's uneven military progress and preference for political-economic pressure, underpin trader consensus that an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date remains unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes