**The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has maintained operations with essential personnel after earlier drawdowns of non-essential staff and family members in February 2026, driven by regional tensions involving Iran, Israel, and Hezbollah.** Partial evacuations occurred then amid heightened security risks, including orders for non-emergency personnel to depart, yet the embassy remained open and functional with core diplomatic functions intact. Subsequent travel advisories through April and into June 2026 have urged American citizens to leave Lebanon while commercial flights are available and to prepare contingency plans, but these have not extended to a full embassy evacuation or closure. No recent official State Department announcements or actions signal plans for complete withdrawal by the June 30 deadline. Security alerts as of early June continue to emphasize shelter-in-place options and monitoring rather than embassy-level departure. Traders assign a 94.1% implied probability to “No” because historical patterns show U.S. missions often reduce footprints temporarily without fully evacuating diplomatic posts unless conditions deteriorate sharply beyond current levels, and no such escalation has materialized in the resolution window. Upcoming regional diplomatic or military developments could still alter this assessment before month-end.