A fragile ceasefire holds after U.S.-Israeli strikes severely degraded Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and missile capabilities starting February 28, 2026, but permanent peace between Israel and Iran appears remote amid stalled diplomacy. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal on May 10 as "unacceptable," demanding an end to uranium enrichment, while Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the war "not over," signaling readiness for further action. Iran is reconstituting forces during the truce and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control, with no direct bilateral talks or normalization progress. Pakistani-mediated U.S.-Iran memorandum discussions continue, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear curbs, and proxies sustain low trader consensus for a deal by June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$842,478 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 31
3%
30 de junio
18%
$842,478 Vol.
May 31
$247,069 Vol.
3%
30 de junio
$280,795 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile ceasefire holds after U.S.-Israeli strikes severely degraded Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and missile capabilities starting February 28, 2026, but permanent peace between Israel and Iran appears remote amid stalled diplomacy. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal on May 10 as "unacceptable," demanding an end to uranium enrichment, while Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the war "not over," signaling readiness for further action. Iran is reconstituting forces during the truce and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control, with no direct bilateral talks or normalization progress. Pakistani-mediated U.S.-Iran memorandum discussions continue, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear curbs, and proxies sustain low trader consensus for a deal by June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volumen
$842,478Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile ceasefire holds after U.S.-Israeli strikes severely degraded Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and missile capabilities starting February 28, 2026, but permanent peace between Israel and Iran appears remote amid stalled diplomacy. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal on May 10 as "unacceptable," demanding an end to uranium enrichment, while Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the war "not over," signaling readiness for further action. Iran is reconstituting forces during the truce and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control, with no direct bilateral talks or normalization progress. Pakistani-mediated U.S.-Iran memorandum discussions continue, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear curbs, and proxies sustain low trader consensus for a deal by June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$842,478Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire holds after U.S.-Israeli strikes severely degraded Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and missile capabilities starting February 28, 2026, but permanent peace between Israel and Iran appears remote amid stalled diplomacy. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal on May 10 as "unacceptable," demanding an end to uranium enrichment, while Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the war "not over," signaling readiness for further action. Iran is reconstituting forces during the truce and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control, with no direct bilateral talks or normalization progress. Pakistani-mediated U.S.-Iran memorandum discussions continue, but core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear curbs, and proxies sustain low trader consensus for a deal by June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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