Israeli forces maintain entrenched positions in southern Lebanon amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire, repeatedly violated by recent airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and cross-border incidents, as seen in IDF operations destroying rocket launchers on May 13. The truce, echoing the November 2024 model, allows Israel to counter threats while demanding Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army enforcement of UNSCR 1701 south of the Litani River—a condition unmet since partial 2025 withdrawals. Lebanon pushes for full pullout in ongoing Washington talks set for later this week, amid March 2026 war resumption. No major de-escalation in the past 30 days heightens uncertainty for withdrawal timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
$1,476,186 Vol.
30 jun 2026
31 de mayo
1%
30 de junio
9%
$1,476,186 Vol.
31 de mayo
$1,208,536 Vol.
1%
30 de junio
$192,645 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces maintain entrenched positions in southern Lebanon amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire, repeatedly violated by recent airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and cross-border incidents, as seen in IDF operations destroying rocket launchers on May 13. The truce, echoing the November 2024 model, allows Israel to counter threats while demanding Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army enforcement of UNSCR 1701 south of the Litani River—a condition unmet since partial 2025 withdrawals. Lebanon pushes for full pullout in ongoing Washington talks set for later this week, amid March 2026 war resumption. No major de-escalation in the past 30 days heightens uncertainty for withdrawal timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$1,476,186Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces maintain entrenched positions in southern Lebanon amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire, repeatedly violated by recent airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and cross-border incidents, as seen in IDF operations destroying rocket launchers on May 13. The truce, echoing the November 2024 model, allows Israel to counter threats while demanding Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army enforcement of UNSCR 1701 south of the Litani River—a condition unmet since partial 2025 withdrawals. Lebanon pushes for full pullout in ongoing Washington talks set for later this week, amid March 2026 war resumption. No major de-escalation in the past 30 days heightens uncertainty for withdrawal timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$1,476,186Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli forces maintain entrenched positions in southern Lebanon amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire, repeatedly violated by recent airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and cross-border incidents, as seen in IDF operations destroying rocket launchers on May 13. The truce, echoing the November 2024 model, allows Israel to counter threats while demanding Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army enforcement of UNSCR 1701 south of the Litani River—a condition unmet since partial 2025 withdrawals. Lebanon pushes for full pullout in ongoing Washington talks set for later this week, amid March 2026 war resumption. No major de-escalation in the past 30 days heightens uncertainty for withdrawal timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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