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Política·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Política·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 52%

Petro - Colombia President 32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.0%

Polymarket

$354,863 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 52%

Petro - Colombia President 32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.0%

Polymarket

$354,863 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$18,939 Vol.

42%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,163 Vol.

32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,802 Vol.

10%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,648 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,766 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$18,804 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$18,845 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Vol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$11,825 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,150 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The trader consensus identifies Starmer and Petro as the closest contenders for the next leadership change before 2027, driven by their respective domestic political pressures in the United Kingdom and Colombia. Starmer faces legislative gridlock, low approval ratings, and upcoming electoral tests that could force an early exit, while Petro contends with reform implementation challenges, coalition strains, and constitutional term limits that keep removal scenarios in play. This narrow margin highlights how parliamentary dynamics, voter sentiment shifts, and institutional timelines in both systems create comparable risks of premature departure compared to more entrenched incumbents elsewhere. Scheduled votes, economic indicators, or party leadership contests over the coming months could separate the probabilities by altering perceived stability for either figure.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$354,863
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The trader consensus identifies Starmer and Petro as the closest contenders for the next leadership change before 2027, driven by their respective domestic political pressures in the United Kingdom and Colombia. Starmer faces legislative gridlock, low approval ratings, and upcoming electoral tests that could force an early exit, while Petro contends with reform implementation challenges, coalition strains, and constitutional term limits that keep removal scenarios in play. This narrow margin highlights how parliamentary dynamics, voter sentiment shifts, and institutional timelines in both systems create comparable risks of premature departure compared to more entrenched incumbents elsewhere. Scheduled votes, economic indicators, or party leadership contests over the coming months could separate the probabilities by altering perceived stability for either figure.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$354,863
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 24 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Starmer - UK PM" con 42%, seguido de "Petro - Colombia President" con 32%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 42¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ha generado $354.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 27, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", explora los 24 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" es "Starmer - UK PM" con 42%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Petro - Colombia President" con 32%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.