**Israeli and Spanish elections dominate trader positioning in this market.** Netanyahu faces a tight October 27 Knesset vote where his Likud-led bloc polls near or below the 61-seat majority threshold, with opposition parties including Yashar gaining ground and surveys showing widespread desire for change after years of conflict and governance challenges. Sánchez called a November 29 snap election following parliamentary defeats on housing measures and amid corruption scrutiny plus immigration pressures, with polls favoring the conservative PP bloc. These near-term contests explain why traders assign Netanyahu the highest individual probability and Sánchez the next-highest among named leaders for departure before 2027, while the leading “none” outcome reflects broader stability for most other incumbents through the period. France’s recent prime ministerial turbulence adds modest weight to lower-probability names but has not shifted the overall ranking.