The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention drives the current trader consensus. Israel filed its Counter-Memorial in March 2026, after which the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s Reply and May 2029 for Israel’s Rejoinder, with oral hearings and any merits decision expected well after the market’s December 2027 cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity but none for genocide. Multiple rounds of provisional measures remain in force at the ICJ, while UN commissions have issued non-binding findings on the underlying conflict. These structural delays and charge distinctions make a final adverse ruling on genocide liability by the resolution date unlikely in the view of market participants.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado15% probabilidad
$99,618 Vol.
$99,618 Vol.
31 dic 2027
15% probabilidad
$99,618 Vol.
$99,618 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention drives the current trader consensus. Israel filed its Counter-Memorial in March 2026, after which the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s Reply and May 2029 for Israel’s Rejoinder, with oral hearings and any merits decision expected well after the market’s December 2027 cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity but none for genocide. Multiple rounds of provisional measures remain in force at the ICJ, while UN commissions have issued non-binding findings on the underlying conflict. These structural delays and charge distinctions make a final adverse ruling on genocide liability by the resolution date unlikely in the view of market participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volumen
$99,618Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2028Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention drives the current trader consensus. Israel filed its Counter-Memorial in March 2026, after which the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s Reply and May 2029 for Israel’s Rejoinder, with oral hearings and any merits decision expected well after the market’s December 2027 cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity but none for genocide. Multiple rounds of provisional measures remain in force at the ICJ, while UN commissions have issued non-binding findings on the underlying conflict. These structural delays and charge distinctions make a final adverse ruling on genocide liability by the resolution date unlikely in the view of market participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$99,618Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2028Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention drives the current trader consensus. Israel filed its Counter-Memorial in March 2026, after which the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s Reply and May 2029 for Israel’s Rejoinder, with oral hearings and any merits decision expected well after the market’s December 2027 cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity but none for genocide. Multiple rounds of provisional measures remain in force at the ICJ, while UN commissions have issued non-binding findings on the underlying conflict. These structural delays and charge distinctions make a final adverse ruling on genocide liability by the resolution date unlikely in the view of market participants.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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