Ongoing regional tensions and the persistent linkage of normalization to Palestinian statehood have kept major candidates like Saudi Arabia from advancing toward the Abraham Accords. Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned any deal on an irreversible pathway to a two-state solution, a stance reinforced in late 2025 statements and unchanged amid the 2026 Iran conflict and related security concerns. Analyses from October 2026 rank Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria as marginally closer prospects, yet none show active bilateral negotiations or timelines that could produce a signing before year-end. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent expansion, with stalled Sudanese implementation and limited diplomatic movement elsewhere underscoring the narrow window and structural barriers that shape current trader consensus.