Stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia, continue to shape trader expectations that no additional country will formally accede to the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026. Riyadh maintains its longstanding requirement for concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood and a Gaza ceasefire as preconditions, despite repeated U.S. diplomatic overtures and bilateral summits. Kazakhstan’s accession in November 2025 marked the most recent expansion, yet subsequent efforts involving potential candidates such as Somaliland, Syria, or Indonesia have produced no new formal agreements amid persistent regional frictions. This lack of momentum over the past six months underpins the current 55.4 percent implied probability for no further signatories.