Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood as a precondition for normalization remains the dominant barrier, reinforced by Riyadh’s strategic hedging through defense pacts with Pakistan and outreach toward Iran. Despite sustained US diplomatic pressure under the second Trump administration—including explicit linkage of a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement to Abraham Accords accession—no major Arab state has advanced talks to signing. Potential candidates such as Syria and Lebanon have explicitly ruled out participation amid ongoing military operations, while recent accessions like Kazakhstan were largely symbolic given preexisting ties. Regional instability and divergent Israeli-Gulf threat assessments have further reduced the likelihood of additional signatories before the 2027 deadline.