Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 87.8% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader at the end of 2026, reflecting his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28. Institutional backing from the IRGC and clerical bodies has sustained his position amid ongoing regional conflict, despite his absence from public view since taking office and persistent questions about his health following reported injuries. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly affirmed Mojtaba's fitness based on extended meetings, while recent reporting highlights factional discussions about a potential post-conflict transition. Traders appear to price in continuity through year-end barring major escalation or verified incapacity, with alternatives like "No Head of State" or other clerics remaining marginal.