**Trader consensus favoring "No" (78.5%) reflects the rarity of ambassador expulsions and the absence of escalatory triggers through late 2026.** Expelling a U.S. ambassador under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations is an exceptional step typically reserved for severe breakdowns, such as espionage cases or acute geopolitical crises. No such actions have occurred recently. The most visible friction involves U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, where a parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures calls for declaring him persona non grata over comments tied to bilateral tensions and sovereignty issues. However, analysts and officials assess the Canadian government as unlikely to proceed, viewing the matter as manageable without formal expulsion. Broader U.S. diplomatic posture shows multiple vacant ambassadorial posts, recalls of career diplomats for realignment, and localized strains (e.g., with France or South Africa over envoy statements), yet these have produced summonses or public criticism rather than reciprocal expulsions. No verified reports indicate imminent moves by any country against U.S. envoys. With roughly four months remaining until year-end and no active conflicts or verified escalations crossing the expulsion threshold, market pricing aligns with the low historical frequency of such events outside major crises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
9% probabilidad
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
9% probabilidad
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus favoring "No" (78.5%) reflects the rarity of ambassador expulsions and the absence of escalatory triggers through late 2026.**
Expelling a U.S. ambassador under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations is an exceptional step typically reserved for severe breakdowns, such as espionage cases or acute geopolitical crises. No such actions have occurred recently. The most visible friction involves U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, where a parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures calls for declaring him persona non grata over comments tied to bilateral tensions and sovereignty issues. However, analysts and officials assess the Canadian government as unlikely to proceed, viewing the matter as manageable without formal expulsion.
Broader U.S. diplomatic posture shows multiple vacant ambassadorial posts, recalls of career diplomats for realignment, and localized strains (e.g., with France or South Africa over envoy statements), yet these have produced summonses or public criticism rather than reciprocal expulsions. No verified reports indicate imminent moves by any country against U.S. envoys. With roughly four months remaining until year-end and no active conflicts or verified escalations crossing the expulsion threshold, market pricing aligns with the low historical frequency of such events outside major crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$33,023Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus favoring "No" (78.5%) reflects the rarity of ambassador expulsions and the absence of escalatory triggers through late 2026.**
Expelling a U.S. ambassador under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations is an exceptional step typically reserved for severe breakdowns, such as espionage cases or acute geopolitical crises. No such actions have occurred recently. The most visible friction involves U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, where a parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures calls for declaring him persona non grata over comments tied to bilateral tensions and sovereignty issues. However, analysts and officials assess the Canadian government as unlikely to proceed, viewing the matter as manageable without formal expulsion.
Broader U.S. diplomatic posture shows multiple vacant ambassadorial posts, recalls of career diplomats for realignment, and localized strains (e.g., with France or South Africa over envoy statements), yet these have produced summonses or public criticism rather than reciprocal expulsions. No verified reports indicate imminent moves by any country against U.S. envoys. With roughly four months remaining until year-end and no active conflicts or verified escalations crossing the expulsion threshold, market pricing aligns with the low historical frequency of such events outside major crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$33,023Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" (78.5%) reflects the rarity of ambassador expulsions and the absence of escalatory triggers through late 2026.** Expelling a U.S. ambassador under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations is an exceptional step typically reserved for severe breakdowns, such as espionage cases or acute geopolitical crises. No such actions have occurred recently. The most visible friction involves U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, where a parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures calls for declaring him persona non grata over comments tied to bilateral tensions and sovereignty issues. However, analysts and officials assess the Canadian government as unlikely to proceed, viewing the matter as manageable without formal expulsion. Broader U.S. diplomatic posture shows multiple vacant ambassadorial posts, recalls of career diplomats for realignment, and localized strains (e.g., with France or South Africa over envoy statements), yet these have produced summonses or public criticism rather than reciprocal expulsions. No verified reports indicate imminent moves by any country against U.S. envoys. With roughly four months remaining until year-end and no active conflicts or verified escalations crossing the expulsion threshold, market pricing aligns with the low historical frequency of such events outside major crises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes