The 98% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests that were met with sustained security force crackdowns. Despite leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, economic strain from sanctions and conflict, and proxy setbacks, the regime’s multilayered security apparatus has maintained control without triggering elite defections or nationwide fragmentation sufficient for overthrow. Recent August 2026 developments, including appointments to the Supreme National Security Council and continued management of Strait of Hormuz negotiations amid tightened internal security, underscore continuity rather than dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation of hostilities, a decisive new protest wave exploiting economic grievances, or verifiable fractures within the Revolutionary Guards that erode coercive capacity before the resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre?
Sí
2% probabilidad
$1,611,125 Vol.
$1,611,125 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
$1,611,125 Vol.
$1,611,125 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 98% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests that were met with sustained security force crackdowns. Despite leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, economic strain from sanctions and conflict, and proxy setbacks, the regime’s multilayered security apparatus has maintained control without triggering elite defections or nationwide fragmentation sufficient for overthrow. Recent August 2026 developments, including appointments to the Supreme National Security Council and continued management of Strait of Hormuz negotiations amid tightened internal security, underscore continuity rather than dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation of hostilities, a decisive new protest wave exploiting economic grievances, or verifiable fractures within the Revolutionary Guards that erode coercive capacity before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$1,611,125Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 98% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests that were met with sustained security force crackdowns. Despite leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, economic strain from sanctions and conflict, and proxy setbacks, the regime’s multilayered security apparatus has maintained control without triggering elite defections or nationwide fragmentation sufficient for overthrow. Recent August 2026 developments, including appointments to the Supreme National Security Council and continued management of Strait of Hormuz negotiations amid tightened internal security, underscore continuity rather than dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation of hostilities, a decisive new protest wave exploiting economic grievances, or verifiable fractures within the Revolutionary Guards that erode coercive capacity before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,611,125Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 98% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests that were met with sustained security force crackdowns. Despite leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, economic strain from sanctions and conflict, and proxy setbacks, the regime’s multilayered security apparatus has maintained control without triggering elite defections or nationwide fragmentation sufficient for overthrow. Recent August 2026 developments, including appointments to the Supreme National Security Council and continued management of Strait of Hormuz negotiations amid tightened internal security, underscore continuity rather than dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation of hostilities, a decisive new protest wave exploiting economic grievances, or verifiable fractures within the Revolutionary Guards that erode coercive capacity before the resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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