Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated cohesion following unverified April rumors of IRGC-led power struggles, including alleged house arrests of officials like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian that failed to materialize. No confirmed military or factional actions have emerged in the past 30 days amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel conflict, where Tehran has weathered strikes and protests through crackdowns, prioritizing proxy defenses and Strait of Hormuz tensions over internal upheaval. With 45 days remaining, barriers like IRGC dominance and suppressed dissent limit risks, though sudden escalation or leadership health events could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,114,202 Vol.
$1,114,202 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,114,202 Vol.
$1,114,202 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated cohesion following unverified April rumors of IRGC-led power struggles, including alleged house arrests of officials like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian that failed to materialize. No confirmed military or factional actions have emerged in the past 30 days amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel conflict, where Tehran has weathered strikes and protests through crackdowns, prioritizing proxy defenses and Strait of Hormuz tensions over internal upheaval. With 45 days remaining, barriers like IRGC dominance and suppressed dissent limit risks, though sudden escalation or leadership health events could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,114,202Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated cohesion following unverified April rumors of IRGC-led power struggles, including alleged house arrests of officials like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian that failed to materialize. No confirmed military or factional actions have emerged in the past 30 days amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel conflict, where Tehran has weathered strikes and protests through crackdowns, prioritizing proxy defenses and Strait of Hormuz tensions over internal upheaval. With 45 days remaining, barriers like IRGC dominance and suppressed dissent limit risks, though sudden escalation or leadership health events could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,114,202Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated cohesion following unverified April rumors of IRGC-led power struggles, including alleged house arrests of officials like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian that failed to materialize. No confirmed military or factional actions have emerged in the past 30 days amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel conflict, where Tehran has weathered strikes and protests through crackdowns, prioritizing proxy defenses and Strait of Hormuz tensions over internal upheaval. With 45 days remaining, barriers like IRGC dominance and suppressed dissent limit risks, though sudden escalation or leadership health events could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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