Internal power struggles and leadership transitions following the 2026 Iran war and Ali Khamenei's assassination have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions have publicly accused senior officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei or other successors amid disputes over a US truce and Hormuz Strait negotiations. August 2026 saw military command reshuffles, contradictory public statements, and denied resignation rumors from Pezeshkian, highlighting factional rivalries within the IRGC and government. These developments, combined with post-war instability and regime change pressures, shape market assessments of whether internal actors will attempt to seize control before any resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,115,813 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
11%
$2,115,813 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$74,587 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles and leadership transitions following the 2026 Iran war and Ali Khamenei's assassination have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions have publicly accused senior officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei or other successors amid disputes over a US truce and Hormuz Strait negotiations. August 2026 saw military command reshuffles, contradictory public statements, and denied resignation rumors from Pezeshkian, highlighting factional rivalries within the IRGC and government. These developments, combined with post-war instability and regime change pressures, shape market assessments of whether internal actors will attempt to seize control before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,115,813Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles and leadership transitions following the 2026 Iran war and Ali Khamenei's assassination have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions have publicly accused senior officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei or other successors amid disputes over a US truce and Hormuz Strait negotiations. August 2026 saw military command reshuffles, contradictory public statements, and denied resignation rumors from Pezeshkian, highlighting factional rivalries within the IRGC and government. These developments, combined with post-war instability and regime change pressures, shape market assessments of whether internal actors will attempt to seize control before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,115,813Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles and leadership transitions following the 2026 Iran war and Ali Khamenei's assassination have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions have publicly accused senior officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei or other successors amid disputes over a US truce and Hormuz Strait negotiations. August 2026 saw military command reshuffles, contradictory public statements, and denied resignation rumors from Pezeshkian, highlighting factional rivalries within the IRGC and government. These developments, combined with post-war instability and regime change pressures, shape market assessments of whether internal actors will attempt to seize control before any resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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