Iran's post-2026 war internal dynamics, including leadership vacuums after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February assassination, have fueled trader focus on coup risks through June 30. Hardline factions have publicly accused reformist-leaning officials like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei amid US truce talks and economic protests that began in late 2025. Military and IRGC elements, alongside opposition figures advocating regime change, represent potential vectors for any attempt, while procedural barriers such as fragmented command structures and security force loyalty remain significant. Scheduled diplomatic or protest escalations could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,115,813 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
11%
$2,115,813 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$74,587 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-2026 war internal dynamics, including leadership vacuums after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February assassination, have fueled trader focus on coup risks through June 30. Hardline factions have publicly accused reformist-leaning officials like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei amid US truce talks and economic protests that began in late 2025. Military and IRGC elements, alongside opposition figures advocating regime change, represent potential vectors for any attempt, while procedural barriers such as fragmented command structures and security force loyalty remain significant. Scheduled diplomatic or protest escalations could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,115,813Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-2026 war internal dynamics, including leadership vacuums after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February assassination, have fueled trader focus on coup risks through June 30. Hardline factions have publicly accused reformist-leaning officials like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei amid US truce talks and economic protests that began in late 2025. Military and IRGC elements, alongside opposition figures advocating regime change, represent potential vectors for any attempt, while procedural barriers such as fragmented command structures and security force loyalty remain significant. Scheduled diplomatic or protest escalations could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,115,813Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-2026 war internal dynamics, including leadership vacuums after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February assassination, have fueled trader focus on coup risks through June 30. Hardline factions have publicly accused reformist-leaning officials like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei amid US truce talks and economic protests that began in late 2025. Military and IRGC elements, alongside opposition figures advocating regime change, represent potential vectors for any attempt, while procedural barriers such as fragmented command structures and security force loyalty remain significant. Scheduled diplomatic or protest escalations could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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