Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% implied probability for an Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by the absence of any constitutional trigger—such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's death, resignation, or incapacity—under Iran's electoral rules mandating a snap vote within 50 days of a vacancy. Pezeshkian's term extends to 2028, with his recent public appearances, including a May 7 meeting with interim Supreme Leader figures and statements quashing divided leadership narratives, confirming his ongoing role in the post-Khamenei transition council formed after the Supreme Leader's March death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Amid heightened military tensions, including correlated markets pricing U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure at near-certainty, regime survival trumps electoral logistics in the remaining weeks. Only a sudden presidential health crisis or removal could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?
¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$215,953 Vol.
$215,953 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$215,953 Vol.
$215,953 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% implied probability for an Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by the absence of any constitutional trigger—such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's death, resignation, or incapacity—under Iran's electoral rules mandating a snap vote within 50 days of a vacancy. Pezeshkian's term extends to 2028, with his recent public appearances, including a May 7 meeting with interim Supreme Leader figures and statements quashing divided leadership narratives, confirming his ongoing role in the post-Khamenei transition council formed after the Supreme Leader's March death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Amid heightened military tensions, including correlated markets pricing U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure at near-certainty, regime survival trumps electoral logistics in the remaining weeks. Only a sudden presidential health crisis or removal could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volumen
$215,953Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% implied probability for an Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by the absence of any constitutional trigger—such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's death, resignation, or incapacity—under Iran's electoral rules mandating a snap vote within 50 days of a vacancy. Pezeshkian's term extends to 2028, with his recent public appearances, including a May 7 meeting with interim Supreme Leader figures and statements quashing divided leadership narratives, confirming his ongoing role in the post-Khamenei transition council formed after the Supreme Leader's March death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Amid heightened military tensions, including correlated markets pricing U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure at near-certainty, regime survival trumps electoral logistics in the remaining weeks. Only a sudden presidential health crisis or removal could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$215,953Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% implied probability for an Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by the absence of any constitutional trigger—such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's death, resignation, or incapacity—under Iran's electoral rules mandating a snap vote within 50 days of a vacancy. Pezeshkian's term extends to 2028, with his recent public appearances, including a May 7 meeting with interim Supreme Leader figures and statements quashing divided leadership narratives, confirming his ongoing role in the post-Khamenei transition council formed after the Supreme Leader's March death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Amid heightened military tensions, including correlated markets pricing U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure at near-certainty, regime survival trumps electoral logistics in the remaining weeks. Only a sudden presidential health crisis or removal could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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