Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy represents a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with no indication of willingness to accept a complete halt by year-end. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks, but those negotiations collapsed by July after the 60-day window expired without a final accord, leaving the status quo in place. IAEA reporting through September 2026 highlights restricted inspector access to key sites and unverifiable stockpiles, while Iranian officials continue to reject permanent caps or full suspension. These factors sustain trader consensus that a binding commitment to end enrichment remains unlikely before the December 31 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre?
Sí
13% probabilidad
$1,755,447 Vol.
$1,755,447 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
13% probabilidad
$1,755,447 Vol.
$1,755,447 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy represents a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with no indication of willingness to accept a complete halt by year-end. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks, but those negotiations collapsed by July after the 60-day window expired without a final accord, leaving the status quo in place. IAEA reporting through September 2026 highlights restricted inspector access to key sites and unverifiable stockpiles, while Iranian officials continue to reject permanent caps or full suspension. These factors sustain trader consensus that a binding commitment to end enrichment remains unlikely before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volumen
$1,755,447Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy represents a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with no indication of willingness to accept a complete halt by year-end. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks, but those negotiations collapsed by July after the 60-day window expired without a final accord, leaving the status quo in place. IAEA reporting through September 2026 highlights restricted inspector access to key sites and unverifiable stockpiles, while Iranian officials continue to reject permanent caps or full suspension. These factors sustain trader consensus that a binding commitment to end enrichment remains unlikely before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,755,447Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy represents a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with no indication of willingness to accept a complete halt by year-end. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks, but those negotiations collapsed by July after the 60-day window expired without a final accord, leaving the status quo in place. IAEA reporting through September 2026 highlights restricted inspector access to key sites and unverifiable stockpiles, while Iranian officials continue to reject permanent caps or full suspension. These factors sustain trader consensus that a binding commitment to end enrichment remains unlikely before the December 31 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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