Iranian officials and lawmakers have issued repeated threats and introduced parliamentary bills to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in early 2026, alongside sanctions disputes and IAEA access disputes. However, no formal withdrawal notice has been submitted to the UN or treaty depositaries, and the Foreign Ministry has described such measures as under review without final action. Traders assign an 89.8% probability against withdrawal before 2027 because Iran continues IAEA safeguards reporting at declared sites, maintains diplomatic engagement channels, and faces significant barriers including loss of remaining international leverage and internal coordination hurdles. Recent calls from hardline parliamentarians in July 2026 have not altered this consensus.