Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability of no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven by recent diplomatic signals over military escalation. During the ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned of potential "conflict" from U.S. arms sales to Taiwan—valued at $11-14 billion in recent packages—but prioritized trade, tech, and Iran discussions, signaling preference for negotiations amid economic interdependence. U.S. intelligence's March 2026 assessment found China uncommitted to a 2027 invasion, while routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait and Bashi Channel persist without invasion mobilization. KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun's April visit to Beijing for cross-strait talks further eased tensions. Deterrence via U.S. commitments and Taiwan's defenses, alongside high invasion costs, sustain low odds, though abrupt policy shifts or health events could alter trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿China invadirá Taiwán a finales de 2026?
¿China invadirá Taiwán a finales de 2026?
Sí
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Sí
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability of no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven by recent diplomatic signals over military escalation. During the ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned of potential "conflict" from U.S. arms sales to Taiwan—valued at $11-14 billion in recent packages—but prioritized trade, tech, and Iran discussions, signaling preference for negotiations amid economic interdependence. U.S. intelligence's March 2026 assessment found China uncommitted to a 2027 invasion, while routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait and Bashi Channel persist without invasion mobilization. KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun's April visit to Beijing for cross-strait talks further eased tensions. Deterrence via U.S. commitments and Taiwan's defenses, alongside high invasion costs, sustain low odds, though abrupt policy shifts or health events could alter trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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