President Trump’s September 2026 security agreement with Denmark and Greenland expanded U.S. military access, basing rights, and veto power over non-NATO investments in the Arctic territory while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and Greenland’s self-determination. This outcome followed months of negotiations after earlier U.S. acquisition threats, allowing Trump to claim permanent security control without a territorial transfer. Denmark and Greenland have consistently rejected any sale or annexation, citing NATO alliance strains and domestic opposition. With roughly 15 months remaining before 2027 and no active purchase talks or legislative path to acquisition underway, traders assign a 97.8% probability to “No.” Late shifts remain possible only through unforeseen events such as Greenlandic independence followed by new bilateral negotiations, though such scenarios face substantial diplomatic, legal, and political barriers.