Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, has revived prospects for trilateral talks possibly resuming in October after Russia's State Duma elections. However, core disputes persist over territorial control in Donetsk and security guarantees, with Russia demanding further Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting concessions without robust, long-term assurances. Active fighting continues, including strikes on energy infrastructure and drone attacks, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough amid competing priorities like the Iran conflict. These entrenched positions and the compressed timeline to 2027 underpin trader consensus that a full peace deal remains improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Ucrania firma un acuerdo de paz con Rusia antes de 2027?
¿Ucrania firma un acuerdo de paz con Rusia antes de 2027?
Sí
11% probabilidad
$2,773,334 Vol.
$2,773,334 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
11% probabilidad
$2,773,334 Vol.
$2,773,334 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, has revived prospects for trilateral talks possibly resuming in October after Russia's State Duma elections. However, core disputes persist over territorial control in Donetsk and security guarantees, with Russia demanding further Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting concessions without robust, long-term assurances. Active fighting continues, including strikes on energy infrastructure and drone attacks, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough amid competing priorities like the Iran conflict. These entrenched positions and the compressed timeline to 2027 underpin trader consensus that a full peace deal remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$2,773,334Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, has revived prospects for trilateral talks possibly resuming in October after Russia's State Duma elections. However, core disputes persist over territorial control in Donetsk and security guarantees, with Russia demanding further Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting concessions without robust, long-term assurances. Active fighting continues, including strikes on energy infrastructure and drone attacks, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough amid competing priorities like the Iran conflict. These entrenched positions and the compressed timeline to 2027 underpin trader consensus that a full peace deal remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,773,334Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, has revived prospects for trilateral talks possibly resuming in October after Russia's State Duma elections. However, core disputes persist over territorial control in Donetsk and security guarantees, with Russia demanding further Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting concessions without robust, long-term assurances. Active fighting continues, including strikes on energy infrastructure and drone attacks, while earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough amid competing priorities like the Iran conflict. These entrenched positions and the compressed timeline to 2027 underpin trader consensus that a full peace deal remains improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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