Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation remain stalled by core disagreements over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full recognition of gains in Donbas and other regions, alongside Ukraine’s insistence on credible security guarantees short of NATO membership. A brief three-day ceasefire in May 2026, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to produce follow-on talks despite facilitation by President Trump. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has submitted new proposals to U.S. negotiators while Russia continues offensive operations and conditions any settlement on Ukrainian concessions and sanctions relief. Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, and renewed U.S. envoy visits are anticipated, yet entrenched positions on ceasefire monitoring, demilitarized zones, and post-conflict arrangements continue to limit near-term prospects for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
$5,889,428 Vol.
31 oct 2026
31 de octubre
12%
31 de agosto
4%
31 de diciembre
26%
$5,889,428 Vol.
31 de octubre
$845,788 Vol.
12%
31 de agosto
$369,885 Vol.
4%
31 de diciembre
$2,136,423 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation remain stalled by core disagreements over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full recognition of gains in Donbas and other regions, alongside Ukraine’s insistence on credible security guarantees short of NATO membership. A brief three-day ceasefire in May 2026, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to produce follow-on talks despite facilitation by President Trump. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has submitted new proposals to U.S. negotiators while Russia continues offensive operations and conditions any settlement on Ukrainian concessions and sanctions relief. Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, and renewed U.S. envoy visits are anticipated, yet entrenched positions on ceasefire monitoring, demilitarized zones, and post-conflict arrangements continue to limit near-term prospects for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$5,889,428Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation remain stalled by core disagreements over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full recognition of gains in Donbas and other regions, alongside Ukraine’s insistence on credible security guarantees short of NATO membership. A brief three-day ceasefire in May 2026, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to produce follow-on talks despite facilitation by President Trump. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has submitted new proposals to U.S. negotiators while Russia continues offensive operations and conditions any settlement on Ukrainian concessions and sanctions relief. Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, and renewed U.S. envoy visits are anticipated, yet entrenched positions on ceasefire monitoring, demilitarized zones, and post-conflict arrangements continue to limit near-term prospects for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,889,428Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation remain stalled by core disagreements over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full recognition of gains in Donbas and other regions, alongside Ukraine’s insistence on credible security guarantees short of NATO membership. A brief three-day ceasefire in May 2026, accompanied by large-scale prisoner exchanges, failed to produce follow-on talks despite facilitation by President Trump. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has submitted new proposals to U.S. negotiators while Russia continues offensive operations and conditions any settlement on Ukrainian concessions and sanctions relief. Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, and renewed U.S. envoy visits are anticipated, yet entrenched positions on ceasefire monitoring, demilitarized zones, and post-conflict arrangements continue to limit near-term prospects for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes