Russia’s consistent refusal to hold direct talks without prior agreements on core issues has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by the August 31, 2026 deadline. Kremlin statements in June and late August 2026 explicitly rejected face-to-face negotiations, citing the need for detailed settlements first and dismissing proposals including trilateral formats with the United States. No bilateral summit occurred despite earlier diplomatic overtures and U.S. efforts, aligning with Russia’s longstanding position that expert-level work must precede leader engagement. With the resolution window now closed, the 100% probability on “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed encounter. Late verification of a secret meeting or reinterpretation of the market’s exact criteria remain the only theoretical paths to altering the outcome, though both appear highly improbable given public records and ongoing hostilities.