Recent polling from state-affiliated firms such as VTsIOM and FOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18–20 Duma election, leaving its position relative to the 5% threshold uncertain. SR, a systemic opposition party led by Sergey Mironov, has fielded candidates across all single-member districts and maintains a pro-war platform focused on veteran support and social policy. Exclusion of Yabloko from the national ballot and competition from New People and LDPR have redistributed limited protest and centrist votes, while administrative factors in Russia’s managed electoral system influence final tallies. Traders price the implied probability of clearing the threshold at 57.5% due to this narrow polling band and the precedent of Kremlin-aligned parties receiving variable institutional backing.