Iowa's Republican partisan lean and the open Senate seat created by Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold. Recent Echelon Insights polling shows hypothetical general-election matchups nearly tied, with Ashley Hinson trailing Josh Turek or Zach Wahls by one point, yet the state's R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural conservative base, and midterm turnout patterns sustain the 61.5 percent Republican probability. Hinson's House incumbency provides a visibility edge heading into the June 2 primaries, where she faces Jim Carlin on the Republican side while Democrats see Turek gaining ground in late May surveys. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting these structural factors over individual polling fluctuations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
$115,942 Vol.
$115,942 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
62%
Demócrata
40%
$115,942 Vol.
$115,942 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$53,084 Vol.
62%
Demócrata
$62,858 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's Republican partisan lean and the open Senate seat created by Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold. Recent Echelon Insights polling shows hypothetical general-election matchups nearly tied, with Ashley Hinson trailing Josh Turek or Zach Wahls by one point, yet the state's R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural conservative base, and midterm turnout patterns sustain the 61.5 percent Republican probability. Hinson's House incumbency provides a visibility edge heading into the June 2 primaries, where she faces Jim Carlin on the Republican side while Democrats see Turek gaining ground in late May surveys. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting these structural factors over individual polling fluctuations.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volumen
$115,942Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's Republican partisan lean and the open Senate seat created by Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold. Recent Echelon Insights polling shows hypothetical general-election matchups nearly tied, with Ashley Hinson trailing Josh Turek or Zach Wahls by one point, yet the state's R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural conservative base, and midterm turnout patterns sustain the 61.5 percent Republican probability. Hinson's House incumbency provides a visibility edge heading into the June 2 primaries, where she faces Jim Carlin on the Republican side while Democrats see Turek gaining ground in late May surveys. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting these structural factors over individual polling fluctuations.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$115,942Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's Republican partisan lean and the open Senate seat created by Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold. Recent Echelon Insights polling shows hypothetical general-election matchups nearly tied, with Ashley Hinson trailing Josh Turek or Zach Wahls by one point, yet the state's R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural conservative base, and midterm turnout patterns sustain the 61.5 percent Republican probability. Hinson's House incumbency provides a visibility edge heading into the June 2 primaries, where she faces Jim Carlin on the Republican side while Democrats see Turek gaining ground in late May surveys. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting these structural factors over individual polling fluctuations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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