Recent polls show Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan running neck-and-neck in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary, with results often within a few points and Peltola holding a slight edge in the most recent surveys. This closeness, combined with Peltola’s strong name recognition from her prior congressional win and Sullivan’s established incumbency, has kept trader focus on narrow margins, particularly Peltola finishing 3–6 points ahead. Alaska’s ranked-choice general election path adds uncertainty for primary vote shares, while the absence of major last-minute shifts or scandals has prevented any candidate from pulling away decisively in the final days.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPeltola 3–6% 41%
Peltola <3% 21%
Peltola 6–9% 18%
Sullivan <3% 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 ago 2026
Peltola 15%+
2%
Peltola 12–15%
5%
Peltola 9–12%
5%
Peltola 6–9%
18%
Peltola 3–6%
41%
Peltola <3%
21%
Sullivan <3%
7%
Sullivan 3–6%
1%
Sullivan 6–9%
2%
Sullivan 9–12%
1%
Sullivan 12%+
1%
Peltola 3–6% 41%
Peltola <3% 21%
Peltola 6–9% 18%
Sullivan <3% 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 ago 2026
Peltola 15%+
$200 Vol.
2%
Peltola 12–15%
$159 Vol.
5%
Peltola 9–12%
$159 Vol.
5%
Peltola 6–9%
$393 Vol.
18%
Peltola 3–6%
$5,804 Vol.
41%
Peltola <3%
$979 Vol.
21%
Sullivan <3%
$366 Vol.
7%
Sullivan 3–6%
$733 Vol.
1%
Sullivan 6–9%
$438 Vol.
2%
Sullivan 9–12%
$332 Vol.
1%
Sullivan 12%+
$337 Vol.
1%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls show Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan running neck-and-neck in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary, with results often within a few points and Peltola holding a slight edge in the most recent surveys. This closeness, combined with Peltola’s strong name recognition from her prior congressional win and Sullivan’s established incumbency, has kept trader focus on narrow margins, particularly Peltola finishing 3–6 points ahead. Alaska’s ranked-choice general election path adds uncertainty for primary vote shares, while the absence of major last-minute shifts or scandals has prevented any candidate from pulling away decisively in the final days.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$9,898Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls show Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan running neck-and-neck in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary, with results often within a few points and Peltola holding a slight edge in the most recent surveys. This closeness, combined with Peltola’s strong name recognition from her prior congressional win and Sullivan’s established incumbency, has kept trader focus on narrow margins, particularly Peltola finishing 3–6 points ahead. Alaska’s ranked-choice general election path adds uncertainty for primary vote shares, while the absence of major last-minute shifts or scandals has prevented any candidate from pulling away decisively in the final days.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$9,898Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan running neck-and-neck in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary, with results often within a few points and Peltola holding a slight edge in the most recent surveys. This closeness, combined with Peltola’s strong name recognition from her prior congressional win and Sullivan’s established incumbency, has kept trader focus on narrow margins, particularly Peltola finishing 3–6 points ahead. Alaska’s ranked-choice general election path adds uncertainty for primary vote shares, while the absence of major last-minute shifts or scandals has prevented any candidate from pulling away decisively in the final days.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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