Idaho's entrenched Republican dominance and Jim Risch's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus for a Republican victory in the state's 2026 Senate contest. Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1974. The recent withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth has consolidated opposition behind independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative and Army veteran, yet this shift has produced only marginal movement in probabilities. All major forecasters continue to rate the race as safe or solid for Republicans. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the 83-year-old incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Idaho
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Idaho
Republicano 95.9%
Demócrata 2.5%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.1%
$32,893 Vol.
$32,893 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republicano
96%
Demócrata
2%
Todd Achilles (I)
1%
Republicano 95.9%
Demócrata 2.5%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.1%
$32,893 Vol.
$32,893 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republicano
$18,332 Vol.
96%
Demócrata
$14,387 Vol.
2%
Todd Achilles (I)
$175 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's entrenched Republican dominance and Jim Risch's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus for a Republican victory in the state's 2026 Senate contest. Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1974. The recent withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth has consolidated opposition behind independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative and Army veteran, yet this shift has produced only marginal movement in probabilities. All major forecasters continue to rate the race as safe or solid for Republicans. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the 83-year-old incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$32,893Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's entrenched Republican dominance and Jim Risch's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus for a Republican victory in the state's 2026 Senate contest. Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1974. The recent withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth has consolidated opposition behind independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative and Army veteran, yet this shift has produced only marginal movement in probabilities. All major forecasters continue to rate the race as safe or solid for Republicans. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the 83-year-old incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$32,893Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's entrenched Republican dominance and Jim Risch's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus for a Republican victory in the state's 2026 Senate contest. Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1974. The recent withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth has consolidated opposition behind independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative and Army veteran, yet this shift has produced only marginal movement in probabilities. All major forecasters continue to rate the race as safe or solid for Republicans. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the 83-year-old incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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