Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner. The district's R+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Simpson's incumbency since 1999, and fundraising superiority—over $1 million raised—underscore structural Republican dominance, with past general election margins exceeding 30 points. No public polls indicate primary upset risk, and Democratic primary candidates remain uncompetitive. While a weakened GOP nominee post-primary or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, scandals, health issues, or legal challenges represent the primary threats to this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoID-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
ID-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$1,885 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$2,059 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner. The district's R+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Simpson's incumbency since 1999, and fundraising superiority—over $1 million raised—underscore structural Republican dominance, with past general election margins exceeding 30 points. No public polls indicate primary upset risk, and Democratic primary candidates remain uncompetitive. While a weakened GOP nominee post-primary or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, scandals, health issues, or legal challenges represent the primary threats to this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$3,944Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner. The district's R+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Simpson's incumbency since 1999, and fundraising superiority—over $1 million raised—underscore structural Republican dominance, with past general election margins exceeding 30 points. No public polls indicate primary upset risk, and Democratic primary candidates remain uncompetitive. While a weakened GOP nominee post-primary or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, scandals, health issues, or legal challenges represent the primary threats to this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,944Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner. The district's R+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Simpson's incumbency since 1999, and fundraising superiority—over $1 million raised—underscore structural Republican dominance, with past general election margins exceeding 30 points. No public polls indicate primary upset risk, and Democratic primary candidates remain uncompetitive. While a weakened GOP nominee post-primary or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, scandals, health issues, or legal challenges represent the primary threats to this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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