The October 8 by-election, triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s September resignation, centers trader focus on Labour’s reduced but still leading position in a historically safe seat. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski and a crowded field of 15 candidates, including Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Recent local results and projections show Labour vote share slipping from the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with Greens gaining ground on issues such as housing and local representation. Lower by-election turnout and opposition fragmentation support market pricing that clusters around the 40-45% band as the consensus range, while wider spreads capture uncertainty over how protest or tactical voting will consolidate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones parciales de Holborn y St Pancras: ¿participación en el voto laborista?
Elecciones parciales de Holborn y St Pancras: ¿participación en el voto laborista?
40-45% 33%
35-40% 23%
45-50% 17%
50%+ 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 oct 2026
<30%
11%
30-35%
11%
35-40%
23%
40-45%
33%
45-50%
17%
50%+
17%
40-45% 33%
35-40% 23%
45-50% 17%
50%+ 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 oct 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
11%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
11%
35-40%
$87 Vol.
23%
40-45%
$232 Vol.
33%
45-50%
$116 Vol.
17%
50%+
$208 Vol.
17%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The October 8 by-election, triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s September resignation, centers trader focus on Labour’s reduced but still leading position in a historically safe seat. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski and a crowded field of 15 candidates, including Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Recent local results and projections show Labour vote share slipping from the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with Greens gaining ground on issues such as housing and local representation. Lower by-election turnout and opposition fragmentation support market pricing that clusters around the 40-45% band as the consensus range, while wider spreads capture uncertainty over how protest or tactical voting will consolidate.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volumen
$796Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The October 8 by-election, triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s September resignation, centers trader focus on Labour’s reduced but still leading position in a historically safe seat. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski and a crowded field of 15 candidates, including Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Recent local results and projections show Labour vote share slipping from the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with Greens gaining ground on issues such as housing and local representation. Lower by-election turnout and opposition fragmentation support market pricing that clusters around the 40-45% band as the consensus range, while wider spreads capture uncertainty over how protest or tactical voting will consolidate.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$796Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The October 8 by-election, triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s September resignation, centers trader focus on Labour’s reduced but still leading position in a historically safe seat. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski and a crowded field of 15 candidates, including Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Recent local results and projections show Labour vote share slipping from the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with Greens gaining ground on issues such as housing and local representation. Lower by-election turnout and opposition fragmentation support market pricing that clusters around the 40-45% band as the consensus range, while wider spreads capture uncertainty over how protest or tactical voting will consolidate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá el candidato del Partido Verde entre el 25% y el 30% de los votos en la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras?
34%
Sí
¿Ganará el candidato laborista la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras por un margen del 15% o más?
28%
Sí
¿Ganará Sagal Abdi-Wali la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras?
78%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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