Traders price an 88.5% chance that Russia will not launch a new invasion in 2026 because Russian forces remain fully committed to grinding advances in Ukraine, with no verified troop buildups, staging areas, or official declarations targeting additional countries. A recent parliamentary bill authorizing deployments to protect Russian citizens abroad has fueled speculation about future moves toward Moldova or the Baltics, yet Western intelligence and NATO reinforcements along the eastern flank continue to raise the costs of any such action. Ukrainian President Zelensky has warned of Moscow’s interest in NATO territory, but analysts note that ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, Western arms flows, and Russia’s stretched logistics make a fresh offensive improbable before year-end. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or a Ukraine ceasefire could still shift conditions, though current evidence keeps the market consensus firmly against a new invasion this year.