Russia’s ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year with over one million estimated casualties and roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory under Moscow’s control, continues to absorb the bulk of Russian military resources and manpower as of mid-August 2026. Recent battlefield reports show incremental Russian advances alongside Ukrainian counter-strikes on Russian infrastructure and territory, with no verified troop movements, official statements, or intelligence indicating preparations for a conventional invasion of additional countries such as NATO members or Georgia. Analysts note Russia’s depleted conventional forces, economic pressures, and diplomatic signals have reinforced trader consensus that a new invasion before year-end remains highly unlikely, sustaining the 94.5 percent implied probability on “No.”