European Union regulations adopted in early 2026 formalize the phaseout of all Russian pipeline gas imports by the end of 2027, while Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has moved to block any Nord Stream reactivation as part of sanctions policy. The pipelines remain inoperable following the 2022 sabotage, with one intact segment uncertified and mothballed amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and European supply diversification. Trader consensus at 97.5% against activation before 2027 reflects these binding legal timelines, political commitments, and infrastructure barriers. A rapid ceasefire enabling sanctions relief or a reversal in German or EU energy policy could still alter the timeline, though no such developments are confirmed within the window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
European Union regulations adopted in early 2026 formalize the phaseout of all Russian pipeline gas imports by the end of 2027, while Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has moved to block any Nord Stream reactivation as part of sanctions policy. The pipelines remain inoperable following the 2022 sabotage, with one intact segment uncertified and mothballed amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and European supply diversification. Trader consensus at 97.5% against activation before 2027 reflects these binding legal timelines, political commitments, and infrastructure barriers. A rapid ceasefire enabling sanctions relief or a reversal in German or EU energy policy could still alter the timeline, though no such developments are confirmed within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volumen
$151,561Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
European Union regulations adopted in early 2026 formalize the phaseout of all Russian pipeline gas imports by the end of 2027, while Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has moved to block any Nord Stream reactivation as part of sanctions policy. The pipelines remain inoperable following the 2022 sabotage, with one intact segment uncertified and mothballed amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and European supply diversification. Trader consensus at 97.5% against activation before 2027 reflects these binding legal timelines, political commitments, and infrastructure barriers. A rapid ceasefire enabling sanctions relief or a reversal in German or EU energy policy could still alter the timeline, though no such developments are confirmed within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$151,561Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European Union regulations adopted in early 2026 formalize the phaseout of all Russian pipeline gas imports by the end of 2027, while Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has moved to block any Nord Stream reactivation as part of sanctions policy. The pipelines remain inoperable following the 2022 sabotage, with one intact segment uncertified and mothballed amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and European supply diversification. Trader consensus at 97.5% against activation before 2027 reflects these binding legal timelines, political commitments, and infrastructure barriers. A rapid ceasefire enabling sanctions relief or a reversal in German or EU energy policy could still alter the timeline, though no such developments are confirmed within the window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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